Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick – 5/28/2025

The Western Conference Finals shift back to Oklahoma City for Game 5 on May 28 as the Thunder carry a 3-1 edge over Minnesota. Oklahoma City posted a league-best 35-6 mark at Paycom Center during the regular season and has yet to drop a home game this postseason, giving bettors plenty to ponder with the Timberwolves facing elimination. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 PM Eastern Time, and the atmosphere promises to be electric with a Finals berth on the line.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Preview

Monday’s 128-126 thriller swung momentum back to the Thunder behind a spellbinding 40-point, 10-rebound, 9-assist showcase from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who bounced back emphatically after being limited in Game 3. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren added timely buckets while Oklahoma City’s aggressive back-court pressure forced 21 turnovers that proved decisive in crunch time. Minnesota countered with balanced scoring. Six players reached double figures, highlighted by Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s 23 points and Jaden McDaniels’ two-way spark, yet they still slipped into a daunting 3-1 hole.

Anthony Edwards has averaged 25.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 5.7 assists across the postseason, and Minnesota will need every ounce of his shot-making to extend the series. Rudy Gobert’s rim deterrence remains vital against Oklahoma City’s relentless drives. Encouragingly for head coach Chris Finch, the Timberwolves list no injuries for Game 5, enabling a full rotation in an elimination setting. Oklahoma City’s lone absence is reserve guard Nikola Topic, out since knee surgery, leaving Mark Daigneault’s primary rotation intact.

The Thunder boast the postseason’s stingiest defensive rating and hold opponents under 110 points in seven of 11 contests, powered by Holmgren’s paint protection and Lu Dort’s perimeter harassment. Offensively, Gilgeous-Alexander’s 29.5 ppg playoff scoring average ranks fifth among all playoff participants, while his 46.4% field-goal clip underscores elite efficiency. Minnesota’s path is clear: value every possession, neutralize transition opportunities, and trust Edwards to dictate pace. That task looms large in hostile territory where the Thunder feed off early runs and crowd energy.

Key numbers to monitor before the ball goes up:

• Oklahoma City is 8-2 straight up and 6-4 against the spread at home in the playoffs.
• Minnesota is 3-4 on the road in the postseason with an average differential of -7.3 points.
• The Thunder force 15.9 turnovers per game, best of any playoff team.
• The Timberwolves allow opponents to shoot only 33.4% from three — second in the playoffs — a trend that must hold to survive.

Betting Insights

Books opened Oklahoma City as an 8.5-point favorite with a moneyline of -380 and a total of 220.5. Early action has largely held those numbers steady, reflecting confidence that the Thunder will finish the series while leaving room for a Wolves back-door cover.

Bettors should weigh several angles:

1. Spread—Oklahoma City covered both home games in this series by an average of 16 points, yet sits 6-9 against the spread overall this postseason. Minnesota is 4-3 as a road underdog in the playoffs and has shot 48% or better in three of the past four outings.
2. Total—Three of four games have cleared 220 points, boosted by elevated pace and three-point variance. The lone under arrived in Game 3 when Minnesota’s defense throttled Gilgeous-Alexander.
3. Player props—Gilgeous-Alexander’s points line hovers at 31.5, a mark he has eclipsed in seven of his last nine contests. Edwards sits around 28.5 after scoring 33 and 31 in his two Paycom Center appearances in this series.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Prediction

Elimination pressure can fuel inspired efforts, and Minnesota’s offense has found a groove by involving Edwards in early pick-and-rolls and freeing Towns for trail threes. Expect Finch to sprinkle in Aaron Holiday minutes to juice secondary creation and hide Edwards on defense for key stretches. Nonetheless, Oklahoma City’s ability to generate paint touches at will (Gilgeous-Alexander leads all remaining postseason players in drives per game) acts as the ultimate trump card. Combine that with a raucous crowd and the Thunder’s deep guard rotation, and the hosts own most of the levers controlling Game 5.

Look for Minnesota to come out swinging and keep the scoreboard tight enough to flirt with the number, yet Oklahoma City owns too many answers late. Final lean: Thunder 115, Timberwolves 107. Recommendation: Timberwolves +8.5 and under 220.5 for half-unit splits, plus a sprinkle on Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points given his relentless form.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Win Probabilities

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