Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick – 5/22/2025

The Western Conference Finals shift into their second act on Thursday night as the Minnesota Timberwolves attempt to rebound from a humbling 114-88 loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1. Oklahoma City’s emphatic second-half surge delivered a message about the gap between the top seed’s current form and a Timberwolves squad that looked rusty after a week off. With tip-off set for 8:30 p.m. at Paycom Center, bettors must weigh whether Minnesota can rediscover its offensive groove quickly enough to compete with a Thunder roster that has thrived on its home floor all season.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Preview

Game 1 was a masterclass in second-half adjustments by Oklahoma City. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shook off an 11-point first half to pour in 20 after intermission, finishing with 31 points while orchestrating a 70-40 closing stretch that blew the contest open. The newly crowned league MVP capped a regular season in which he led the NBA at 32.7 points on 51.9 percent shooting, and his ability to generate paint touches at will remains the series’ biggest problem for Minnesota.

Chet Holmgren’s length at the rim and Jalen Williams’ slashing complemented SGA’s drives, but it was an unheralded bench spark, Kenrich Williams, that swung momentum with a pair of jumpers during the pivotal 10-0 third-quarter run. Oklahoma City entered the postseason 35-6 at Paycom Center, and its +12.9 home net rating shows in the way Mark Daigneault’s club feeds off crowd energy once the pace picks up.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has the personnel to respond. Julius Randle (28 points, 5-of-6 from deep) delivered an early barrage that briefly quieted the building, and Anthony Edwards—coming off a 27.6-point regular season—insists he will stay aggressive after taking only 13 shots in the opener after leaving briefly due to injury in the first half. Minnesota's role players have to perform to keep Thunder help defenders honest and free Edwards on the perimeter.

The chief adjustment for coach Chris Finch is shot selection. Minnesota hoisted a conference finals record 51 three-pointers Tuesday yet converted just 29.4 percent. Excluding Randle’s burst, the roster went 10/45 from distance. Look for more drive-and-kick actions that place Rudy Gobert in short-roll playmaking spots rather than parking him in the dunker slot, and for Donte DiVincenzo to keep firing from distance after a 3/12 night that produced clean looks.

Betting Insights

• Current line: Thunder -7.5; Timberwolves +7.5
• Total: 214.5 points
• Moneyline: Thunder -325, Timberwolves +260

The spread and total both dipped half a point from Game 1 closes, illustrating that bookmakers expect a tighter contest and some shooting regression on both sides. Public splits at multiple books show roughly 60 percent of tickets on Oklahoma City but a near-even money handle, hinting at sharper backing of the underdog.

Trend-wise, the Thunder are 34-14-1 against the spread at home this season, including 5-2 ATS in the playoffs. The Timberwolves are 24-19 ATS on the road and 14-8 straight-up after losses, a reflection of the quick-fix approach Finch’s group has displayed since January. Total bettors should note that nine of Oklahoma City’s last 12 home games have finished below the number, largely due to a top-three defensive rating in that span. Minnesota has stayed Under in seven of its last ten overall, with Game 1 ending 17.5 points beneath the closing line.

1. Key prop watch: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points line is 30.5. Minnesota’s scheme may shade extra length at him after he attempted 13 free throws in the opener, but he has posted 31-plus in five of seven playoff home games.
2. Three-point volume: Books list Anthony Edwards at 3.5 made threes (Over +110). He attempted eight triples in Game 1 and averaged 12.5 per road game in the previous round.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Prediction

Minnesota is unlikely to shoot 29 percent from three again, and a less aggressive whistle on Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives could shave a handful of Thunder points. Still, Oklahoma City’s collective pace, depth and half-court discipline—anchored by Holmgren’s rim deterrence—give it more avenues to victory. The Timberwolves’ best adjustment is to attack early in the clock before OKC’s shell sets, but that plan opens possibilities for turnovers that feed the Thunder transition game, precisely what produced a 31-4 edge in points off giveaways Tuesday.

Expect a sharper Timberwolves offense, yet Oklahoma City’s superior shot creation and home-court comfort should prevail. If Minnesota does find its stroke, the total still sits four points below Game 1 and two points below the series opener’s close, leaving room for a modest uptick without clearing the posted number.

Pick: Thunder -7.5 and Under 214.5. Final score projection: Oklahoma City 112, Minnesota 101.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Win Probabilities

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