Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Prediction – 6/16/2025

Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals returns to Oklahoma City tonight, Monday, June 16, at 8:30 p.m. ET, with the series tied at 2–2. After a dramatic Game 4 comeback led by Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander’s 35 points, the home‑team Thunder now hold the edge. Indiana’s resilient effort has kept this series alive, but Oklahoma City’s home‑court edge looms large as they look to seize control of this best-of-seven series.

Our Thunder vs Pacers Game 5 Pick

Spread: Thunder -9.5
Total: Over 224.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date & Time: Monday, June 16, 2025, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• Broadcast: ABC

Key Storylines

• Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander continues his MVP‑level run in the Finals after pouring in 35 in Game 4 to prevent a potential 1–3 hole. He’s the Thunder’s clear anchor.
• Indiana coach Rick Carlisle’s defensive schemes have bewildered Oklahoma City at times and fueled upsets, reminiscent of his 2011 Finals run, as the Pacers refuse to fold.
• Thunder’s dominance down the stretch in Game 4 saw them win the rebound battle (43–33), draw 38 free‑throw attempts, and control the paint. These advantages could carry over at home.
• Pacers look to Tyrese Haliburton and stellar bench performances (like Bennedict Mathurin’s 27 off the bench in Game 3) to keep them competitive, despite thin margins against a juggernaut defense.
• Both teams are healthy and rested, with Thunder riding home‑court momentum and Pacers hungry to take the lead for the third time in the series.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

• Series tied 2–2.
• Season head‑to‑head: OKC went 2–0 in the regular season, making them 4-2 against Indy this year.
• Thunder are 35–15–2 ATS at home this season (70%).

Best Player Props to Watch

Advanced Metrics & Trends

• The Thunder rank number one in defensive rating in the playoffs, and second in net rating.
• Pacers boast second-best offensive rating in the playoffs.
• OKC plays a controlled tempo but can push pace, especially off of turnovers.
• Key mismatch: OKC's Holmgren vs Indiana’s bigs (Turner/Siakam). If Holmgren controls the glass and rim area, Thunder win the interior battle.

Thunder vs Pacers Model Prediction

Score Projection: Thunder 122 – Pacers 108
Win Probability: Thunder 78%, Pacers 22%

Final Thoughts

Oklahoma City enters Game 5 with home‑court advantage, momentum, and a defensive intensity that turns every possession into a possible momentum swing. Indiana’s energy and discipline keep them dangerous, but the Thunder’s superior personnel depth, paint control, and SGA’s late‑game dominance should move them ahead in a high‑scoring affair. Expect OKC to cover the 9.5‑point spread and push this to a Game 6 with OKC holding a 3-2 lead.

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