Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 Pick – 6/22/2025

The stage is set at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City as the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder square off in a high-stakes Game 7 to determine the champion of the 2025 NBA Finals. This marks the first Finals Game 7 since 2016, and with both teams hungry for their first NBA title in their current homes, expect fireworks in a matchup that has swung back and forth throughout the series. With the Thunder holding home‑court advantage and armed with MVP Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander, and Indiana riding momentum behind clutch performances from Tyrese Haliburton and company, bettors have plenty to dissect as tip‑off approaches.

Our Thunder vs Pacers Game 7 Pick

Spread: Thunder –6.5
Total: Under 214.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date & Time: Sunday, June 22, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• Broadcast: ABC

Key Storylines

• The Thunder have been dominant at home, going 35–6 in the regular season and holding serve for the most part in the playoffs at Paycom Center.
• Indiana is battling through injuries. Tyrese Haliburton is still managing a calf strain, as they aim to cap off a Cinderella run.
• The Pacers struck back hard in Game 6, winning a 108–91 blowout win at home, showing they are capable of flipping this series entirely.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

Through six games, the teams have split 3‑3, with Oklahoma City posting two regular season wins but seeing Indiana Game 1 on the road. The Thunder have two straight at home, and will look to do so again here with the championship on the line.

Best Player Props to Watch

Advanced Metrics & Trends

• Offense: Thunder post a vibrant 121.9 ppg at home versus Pacers’ 107.2 on the road.
• Defense: Oklahoma City has turned up defensive pressure all playoffs, while Indiana ranks at the top in postseason assists and efficiency.
• Pace: Both teams push tempo, but home crowd energy is likely to speed up play and increase turnovers, which is favorable to the Thunder transition game.
• Mismatches: Thunder’s ensemble of shooters could exploit Pacers’ perimeter defense. Conversely, Indiana’s Haliburton vs SGA faceoff may determine control of the game.

Thunder vs Pacers Game 7 Model Projection

Score Projection: Thunder 112 – Pacers 100
Win Probability: Thunder 68%, Pacers 32%

Final Thoughts

This Game 7 features the perfect mix of star power, momentum swings, and intensity. The Thunder have the edge in offensive reliability, defensive intensity, and crowd support. It’s unlikely Indiana’s hot shooting holds for a second straight game under pressure. We like Oklahoma City to win by double digits and the under to hold in a pressure‑filled environment.

Visit the NBA picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.