Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Game 2 Prediction – 5/23/2025

The Eastern Conference Finals resume on Friday night with Game 2 at Madison Square Garden. Indiana seized home-court advantage by erasing a 17-point deficit and winning the opener 138-135 in overtime, shocking the Knicks and the Madison Square Garden crowd. The Pacers’ flowing offense kept New York on its heels, while the Knicks’ stars still posted monster numbers. With less than 48 hours between games, bettors must weigh fatigue, adjustments, officiating style, and the psychological swing of a blown lead. New York remains favored going into Game 2, yet a key question lingers: can Indiana’s depth and pace win out at the Garden again, or will Tom Thibodeau’s club impose its will and even the series?

Pacers vs Knicks Game 2 Preview

Indiana’s balanced scoring was on full display in Game 1. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton directed traffic with 31 points and 11 assists, slicing New York’s defense with high pick-and-rolls and early-clock triples. The surprise hero, Aaron Nesmith, drilled eight three-pointers, six in the final five minutes, and finished with 30. Myles Turner supplied 14 points and helped protect the paint. Rick Carlisle used 10 players and that fresh-legged rotation has produced a 5-1 road record this postseason and a league-best net rating among remaining playoff teams.

The Knicks can take solace in their offensive output in Game 1. Jalen Brunson poured in 43 and is up to 29.9 points per playoff game on 46 percent shooting. Karl-Anthony Towns added 35 and 12 boards and continues to stretch defenses with deep pick-and-pop range. Josh Hart’s two-way hustle kept possessions alive, but Towns was the only New York starter to post a positive +/- on Wednesday. Mitchell Robinson and Miles McBride supplied energetic defense off the bench, which will be essential again tonight.

Tempo will once again be key in Game 2. The Pacers led the league in possessions per game during the regular season and sprinted again in Game 1, scoring on their first eight trips. New York must reduce live-ball turnovers (18 in the opener) and keep Indy out of the open floor. Look for OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges to chase Nesmith off the arc, while Thibodeau may sprinkle in zone looks to make Haliburton think before initiating. On the other end, Indiana will live with Brunson isolations if it means limiting secondary playmakers, and will dare Towns to create from above the break rather than on the block.

Betting Insights

• Point Spread: Knicks -5.5
• Moneyline: Knicks -255, Pacers +210
• Total: 225.5
• Recent Trends:
  1. Pacers are 17-10 against the number this season as road underdogs and 5-1 straight-up away from home in the playoffs.
  2. Knicks are 3-4 straight-up at Madison Square Garden this postseason and have just two double-digit wins in 13 playoff games.
  3. The over has hit in seven of Indiana’s last nine outings, driven by the league’s fastest pace and 40.1 three-point attempts per game.
  4. The under has cashed in four of New York’s last six, but Wednesday’s 273-point avalanche shattered closing totals by nearly 50.
• Key Player Props (consensus):
  • Brunson points 29.5 (over -115)
  • Towns rebounds 11.5 (over -110)
  • Turner points 13.5 (over -120)

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Game 2 Prediction

Bookmakers have shifted series odds toward Indiana, yet Game 2 lines still lean to New York on home court. That reflects belief in regression for Nesmith’s shooting and the notion that playoff veterans respond swiftly after painful defeats. However, the underlying numbers favor the visitors: Indiana’s deeper bench should mitigate the quick turnaround from an overtime slugfest, and Haliburton’s playmaking continues to generate high-value corner threes, as New York surrendered 20 wide-open attempts Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Knicks’ defense ranks 12th among 16 playoff teams in efficiency, and their starting group has leaked 167.4 points per 100 possessions across the last three games.

The officiating crew in Game 1 allowed a fast pace and minimal whistle on incidental contact and a similar tenor benefits Indiana’s breakneck style. Even if Nesmith cools, Turner’s pick-and-pop accuracy and Bennedict Mathurin’s slashing can help shoulder scoring load, while T.J. McConnell continues to hound Brunson in his minutes off the bench. New York’s path to covering likely requires a lower-possession grind with better defensive rebounding, something it has struggled to impose against these Pacers all season.

Best Bet: Pacers +5.5. Indiana’s depth, pace, and confidence after stealing the opener make a two-possession cushion appealing. With both clubs happy to fire early in the shot clock and each featuring elite shot-makers, the total leans high as well; a smaller play on Over 227 is worth consideration, but the primary recommendation is taking the points with the road side.

Predicted Final Score: Indiana Pacers 113.6, New York Knicks 117.99

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Game 2 Win Probabilities

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