Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Game 5 Pick – 5/29/2025

The stakes could not be higher in New York tonight as the Knicks fight to stay alive while the Pacers eye their first trip to the NBA Finals in 25 years. Indiana’s 130-121 victory on Tuesday gave the fourth seed a 3-1 cushion and continued an extraordinary postseason run. New York, backed by an electric Madison Square Garden crowd and the urgency of facing elimination, must correct the defensive lapses and turnovers that have plagued them this series, while dealing with fresh injury concerns around All-Star big man Karl-Anthony Towns.

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Game 5 Preview

Indiana’s high-octane offense is humming at the right moment. The Pacers have topped 130 points twice in this series and are shooting over 50% from the floor across the four games. Tyrese Haliburton, coming off a 32-point triple-double with zero turnovers, is averaging 24.3 points, 11 assists and 7 rebounds against New York and continues to dictate pace with his penetration, early-clock threes and pinpoint kick-outs. Pascal Siakam adds 25.8 points per game in the series and has punished the Knicks at all three levels. Rick Carlisle’s rotation remains healthy, deep and confident that its space-and-cut principles will travel once more.

The Knicks enter with their backs against the wall but hardly lacking firepower. Jalen Brunson is pouring in 33.3 points on 48% shooting through the first four games thanks to relentless downhill drives and an improved pull-up three. Josh Hart’s energy remains vital on the glass, yet New York has surrendered 22 fast-break points in the most recent defeat and coughed up 17 turnovers that became 20 Indiana points. Tom Thibodeau’s biggest worry, though, is Towns. The star center is listed as questionable with a left knee contusion and his status will not be decided until shoot-around. Towns is producing 25.8 points and 11.5 rebounds in the series, and without him New York would turn to Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa for interior size, a downgrade that also hurts spacing around Brunson pick-and-rolls.

New York’s defensive plan has toggled between double-teaming Haliburton high, switching one through five, and sprinkling in zone looks, but none of it has slowed Indiana’s rhythm. The Knicks must improve their point-of-attack containment, shrink gaps to stunt drives and avoid the live-ball turnovers that have let Indiana run. Offensively they will lean on Brunson-Towns actions if the big man is cleared, mixing Robinson as a vertical threat and hoping OG Anunoby rediscovers the catch-and-shoot form that propelled the team in the earlier rounds.

Betting Insights

• Spread – Knicks -4.5
• Moneyline – Knicks -170, Pacers +145
• Total – 222.5
• Indiana is 6-0 against the spread in its past six road playoff games
• Three of the four series games have cleared 222 points
• Haliburton assists prop sits at 10.5, a line he has exceeded in three of four contests
• Brunson points prop is 32.5, slightly below his current series average

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Game 5 Prediction

The Garden will be frenzied, the whistle typically leans to the aggressive host, and desperate teams often deliver peak effort. Yet handicapping this game comes down to two variables: pace and availability. Pace has belonged to Indiana all series, and Carlisle’s club keeps creating deep-paint touches before New York can set its half-court coverage. Even if Towns starts, a tender knee limits lateral movement and rim protection. The Pacers also carry supreme late-game confidence, led by Haliburton.

Expect Brunson to fire early and often, possibly cracking 40 again, but unless Anunoby and Mikal Bridges bury open threes and the Knicks trim turnovers into single digits, the scoring efficiency gap remains. Indiana’s bench with Obi Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin continues to win its shifts, and Myles Turner’s floor-spreading keeps Robinson away from the rim.

Recommendation: Pacers +4.5 and Over 222.5. Indiana’s cohesion and Haliburton’s orchestration should keep this one tight at worst, and another up-tempo shootout is the likeliest script. Knicks grit extends this thriller to the final minutes, but the road side covers and has a realistic shot to clinch outright.

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Game 5 Win Probabilities

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