Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Game 1 Pick – 5/21/2025

The Eastern Conference Finals tip off Wednesday, May 21 at 8 p.m. ET inside Madison Square Garden, where the New York Knicks host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of a series that renews one of the NBA's great rivalries on one of its biggest stages. New York enters as a modest home favorite, but Indiana’s high-octane offense has burned bettors who have faded it all spring. Here, we break down Pacers vs Knicks Game 1 from The Garden.

Pacers vs Knicks Game 1 Preview

Indiana’s journey here has been anything but quiet. After sending Milwaukee home in five games, the Pacers stunned the 64-win Cavaliers in another five-game romp, becoming the first team to oust a 64-plus-win opponent in fewer than six games before the conference finals. Their surge since January (42-16 counting the playoffs) is powered by a relentless transition game steered by Tyrese Haliburton, whose postseason line sits at 17.5 points and 9.3 assists. Pascal Siakam provides a half-court safety valve, while Myles Turner’s rim protection has helped an underrated defense.

New York arrives on the heels of a headline-grabbing six-game upset of the reigning champion Boston Celtics. The Knicks’ playoff résumé features Karl-Anthony Towns tormenting defenses inside and out (19.75 ppg in the playoffs), and Jalen Brunson engineering crunch-time comebacks with 28.8 points per game in the postseason. Add Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby on the wings and the Knicks boast an elite set of individual stoppers. Crucially, they list no injuries for Game 1, granting coach Tom Thibodeau a full rotation to deploy (or at least what members of it he chooses to use).

Stylistically, this opener hinges on pace. Indiana leads all remaining playoff teams in fast-break frequency, averaging 117.4 points a night (seventh during the regular season) while giving up 115.1. New York prefers calculated half-court possessions, allowing 111.7 points (top-ten defense) and scoring 115.8 itself. Scouts quoted this week agreed that the team dictating tempo likely claims the series. If the Pacers race, they force mismatches in space; if the Knicks grind, their switchable wing trio can make Indiana’s secondary shooters uncomfortable.

Betting Insights

• Current line: Knicks -4.5; Pacers +4.5
• Moneyline: New York -185; Indiana +155
• Total: 224.5
• Team totals: Knicks O/U 114.5; Pacers O/U 110.5

The spread opened at Knicks -4.5 and has held steady, suggesting two-way action. Bettors backing New York lean on their strong season at home, where they just closed out Boston. Indiana supporters point to the Pacers’ 7-3 ATS record over their last ten and a playoff résumé that includes outright victories as underdogs in nine of their last thirteen games. The total has climbed from 220.5 on release to 224.5, reflecting expectations that Indiana can coax the Knicks into a livelier pace than Boston managed in the last round. Note that the Pacers have seen the over hit in four of their last five, while the Knicks have stayed under in three consecutive contests.

For prop bettors, Brunson’s 28.5-point line sits right at his playoff average. Haliburton’s combo prop (27.5 points + assists) is compelling, given the Knicks rank in the bottom five among playoff teams in opponent assist rate. Meanwhile, Siakam’s 18.5-point number invites over consideration against New York’s sometimes deliberate double-teams on Haliburton, which may leave Pascal single-covered at the elbow.

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Pacers vs Knicks Game 1 Prediction

Game 1 often turns on familiarity, and these franchises know each other well from last year’s seven-game series in the second round of the playoffs. Madison Square Garden’s atmosphere is unrivaled, which is a positive for the Knicks. But Indiana has excelled in hostile settings, owns the more cohesive starting five by net rating, and thrives when opponents struggle to match its tempo for 48 minutes.

Expect Rick Carlisle to push the pace early, forcing New York’s bigs to sprint in retreat. If the Pacers approach their season average of 13-plus made threes and Haliburton controls the open floor, the underdog has a clear path to cover and an outside shot at the straight-up win. New York’s superior half-court defense and late-game shot creation should keep the outcome tight, but laying more than two possessions with a Knicks side that regularly spots early leads feels pricey.

The bet: Pacers +4.5 and Over 224.5. Lean Indiana moneyline for partial exposure, as the Pacers’ transition barrage can flip home-court advantage before the series settles into a grind. Final score projection: Pacers 116, Knicks 112.

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Game 1 Win Probabilities

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