With UFC 317 set to descend on T‑Mobile Arena this Saturday, June 28, 2025, the women’s flyweight clash between Viviane Araujo and Tracy Cortez is expected to be a grind. Cortez enters as the betting favorite, yet Araujo’s experience and durable style create a fight that is expected to play out over a full three rounds. Here is my Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez prediction for UFC 317.
Our Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez Pick
- Pick: Viviane Araujo by unanimous decision
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Viviane Araujo | Tracy Cortez | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 38 | 31 |
| Reach | 68″ | 65.5″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 13‑6‑0 | 11‑2‑0 |
Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez Preview
Araujo brings a veteran’s mindset with 19 professional bouts and a steady record in the flyweight division. She has faced top-tier talent like Alexa Grasso and Amanda Ribas, absorbing losses but never being finished since joining the UFC. Araujo enters this fight ranked eighth in the UFC women’s flyweight rankings and she will look to move up further in the top 10 with a win here.
Cortez, 31, seeks redemption after dropping a five‑round decision to Rose Namajunas in July of 2024. Targeting a return to form, she is aggressive, with 57% significant strike accuracy and an average of a couple of takedowns per fight. She has yet to finish an opponent in the UFC, but she has also yet to be finished in the UFC, as she typically prefers to wear her opponents down.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline odds spotlight Cortez as the favorite. At DraftKings, she is -250, while Araujo is +205 to get the win.
- The over/under for this fight showcases an expectation for this fight to go the distance. Over 2.5 rounds is an incredible -720 for this fight, as it is expected that neither fighter will suffer their first loss inside the distance here.
Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez Prediction
Cortez is the fresher and more explosive fighter entering UFC 317. She is seven years younger, with an aggressive output that offsets her slight reach disadvantage. However, Cortez also tends to outhit her opponents rather than finish them, and her loss to Namajunas exposed potential issues with takedown defense and fatigue over long fights.
Araujo’s strength lies in her durability and grinding pace. If she can weather early Cortez pressure and drag the fight into deeper waters, she could have success despite being an underdog. If Araujo successfully stuffs takedown attempts and makes Cortez fight at her tempo, she can accumulate volume and control rounds late.
Stylistically, Cortez needs to win clear early, but Araujo’s pace and veteran savvy could prevent that from happening. Given that this fight is likely to go to the judges, I think there is some value on the underdog in this matchup. I will take Araujo at +205 and hope that she does enough to impress the judges in a fight that is almost certain to go the full 15 minutes.
