The lightweight clash between UFC debutant Tofiq Musayev and Myktybek Orolbai on Saturday, June 21, 2025, at Baku Crystal Hall is an interesting one. Orolbai arrives with some UFC experience and consistent finishing ability, while Musayev, a former Rizin Grand Prix champion, carries elite striking power and hometown support. Here, we analyze this fight and make our Tofiq Musayev vs Myktybek Orolbai prediction.
Our Tofiq Musayev vs Myktybek Orolbai Pick
- Pick: Myktybek Orolbai
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For This Fight: Use BetMGM promo code ATSBONUS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win!
Tale of the Tape
| Orolbai | Musayev | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 35 |
| Reach | 74″ (188 cm) | 72″ (183 cm) |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 13‑2‑1 | 22‑5‑0 |
Tofiq Musayev vs Myktybek Orolbai Preview
Orolbai, 27, has steadily built his UFC résumé with crisp striking and toughness, going 2-1 in his first three fights with the promotion. He opened with a rear‑naked choke finish of Uros Medic in November 2023, followed by a unanimous decision over Elves Brener in May 2024. Though he dropped a split decision to Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 308, that fight earned Fight of the Night, showcasing his capacity to fight to the final horn. His high significant strike accuracy and frequent first‑round finishes highlight his striking efficiency and finishing intent.
Musayev, 35, debuts in the UFC with an international résumé that includes Rizin Lightweight Grand Prix gold and a stint in Bellator. He holds a staggering KO/TKO finish rate, with 18 knockouts in 22 wins. His last two fights ended inside the distance via strikes. While his chin has been tested, and his output in later rounds is uncertain, his power is unquestioned. Although his reach is slightly shorter, Musayev is fighting in his home country, where the atmosphere should favor him on fight night.
Betting Insights
- Odds: Orolbai is the favorite at -155 on the moneyline, while Musayev stands at +130 at BetMGM. The line reflects Orolbai’s UFC experience advantage against a fighter making his debut.
- ITD Props: There is a moderate expectation of the fight ending inside the distance, with that market carrying odds of -140, while the fight going the distance is at even money.
- Home advantage: Musayev may raise his level in front of his home crowd in Azerbaijan.
Myktybek Orolbai vs Tofiq Musayev Prediction
In what is likely to be a fast‑paced, emotionally charged fight, Orolbai’s combination of explosive unpredictability, takedown defense, and cardio positions him to avoid the early threat of Musayev. If Musayev cannot land a fight‑ending strike in the first round, Orolbai should gradually take control through volume, leg kicks, and wrestling. This may enable a late finish or decision win after neutralising the early damage.
My pick is Orolbai to win via late submission or decision. He should maintain range and avoid Musayev’s power, causing the debutant’s output to fade with each round. While Musayev hitting early isn’t impossible, it feels unlikely against a tested UFC lightweight with solid defence. The fans in Baku will have to wait for Rafael Fiziev to see one of their countrymen get a win on this fight night.
