As the UFC returns to Nashville on Saturday, July 12, 2025, the co‑main event features a generational clash at welterweight. Veteran striker Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson faces rising grappling specialist Gabriel Bonfim on the main card. Thompson seeks redemption after four losses in his last five bouts, hoping his legendary kickboxing can overcome Bonfim’s submission expertise. Here, I bring you my Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim prediction.
Our Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Pick
- Pick: Gabriel Bonfim via submission
- Confidence: 4 ★
- Bonus Bets For Thompson vs Bonfim: Get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win using BetMGM bonus code ATSBONUS
Tale of the Tape
| Stephen Thompson | Gabriel Bonfim | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 42 | 27 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 72.5″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 17‑8‑1 | 17‑1‑0 |
Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Preview
Thompson enters off a knockout loss to Joaquin Buckley in October 2024 and a submission defeat to Shavkat Rakhmonov in December 2023. Despite this, his kickboxing remains world‑class. He still owns elite footwork and distance control, but I am not sure that his all-around MMA game is good enough to win fights in UFC anymore as he hasn’t won in this promotion since December of 2022.
Bonfim is heading in the opposite direction from Thompson, entering this fight with a 17-1 record in MMA. He has 13 submissions out of his 17 wins and has won two straight fights. He most recently submitted Khaos Williams in February. While his reach is slightly shorter than that of Thompson, his striking is not a priority as he is going to try to get this fight to the ground to win it.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline odds have Bonfim at -400 and Thompson at +300.
- Only one of Bonfim’s career wins has gone the distance.
- Each of Thompson’s last two losses has ended under 2.5 rounds.
Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Prediction
I see this fight playing out as follows:
- Early striking exchanges: Thompson’s precision and veteran timing could frustrate Bonfim at range, though absorption of leg kicks could wear him down.
- Transition zones: Bonfim is almost certain to mix in takedown attempts and clinch entries once he gets a read on Thompson’s striking rhythm.
- Grappling control: If his takedowns land, Bonfim will advance position, isolate limbs, and hunt submissions.
- Fight flow: Thompson must time a KO early if he wants to win, while Bonfim should gain the upper hand in the mid-to-late rounds.
- Finish expectation: Bonfim’s path to victory is via a ground finish in Round 2 or 3, unless Thompson can land a flash stoppage in Round 1.
My Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim wins via submission in Round 2.
