Bantamweight competitors Rinya Nakamura and Nathan Fletcher will meet at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night. Both fighters are coming off losses in their last fight and will look to avoid a second straight defeat here. Nakamura is a heavy favorite going into this fight and Fletcher will look to prove the oddsmakers wrong. Continue reading to get my Rinya Nakamura vs Nathan Fletcher prediction for Saturday night.
Our Rinya Nakamura vs Nathan Fletcher Pick
- Pick: Rinya Nakamura via decision
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Rinya Nakamura | Nathan Fletcher |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 27 |
| Reach | 68.5″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Record | 9‑1‑0 | 9‑2‑0 |
Rinya Nakamura vs Nathan Fletcher Preview
Rinya Nakamura has five knockouts, one submission, and three decision wins in his career. He carries a background as a world-class U23 freestyle wrestler. He suffered his first loss in professional MMA back in January. His one UFC loss came by unanimous decision to Muin Gafurov and Nakamura will look to bounce back in this fight.
Nathan Fletcher is 9‑2 and holds seven submission victories out of his nine career wins. But his takedown defense is not on Nakamura’s level and he lost his most recent bout by split decision against Caolan Loughran in March. That was his first loss since 2021 when he was knocked out in a Cage Warriors matchup. Fletcher responded to that loss with three straight wins and he will look to start a similar streak here.
Fletcher’s path to victory lies on the mat where he can create scrambles and submissions. But getting past Nakamura’s wrestling will be a steep task. Fletcher may land counters on the feet but Nakamura’s power and accuracy will favor him.
Betting Insights
- Nakamura is a heavy favorite at -425 and Fletcher is +330 to pull off the upset.
- This fight is expected to go the distance. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds and the over is priced at -220. The under is +170.
- Nakamura has had three straight fights go to decision.
- Only two of Fletcher’s career fights have gone to the judges.
Rinya Nakamura vs Nathan Fletcher Prediction
Nakamura’s wrestling pedigree and takedown dominance should allow him to dictate where this fight goes. I expect a fast pace where Nakamura mixes level changes and cage control to neutralize Fletcher’s ground game. Fletcher may threaten in grappling exchanges but I think he will struggle creating a sustained threat against Nakamura’s elite defense. I think Nakamura will have the edge if this fight stays upright.
I will take Nakamura to win this fight via decision. As long as he can hold off Fletcher’s submission threat he should have the overall quality to come out ahead on the scorecards. Taking a decision win pays out better than laying all of that juice with Nakamura to win straight up, so that is the path we will take here.
