With UFC Fight Night heading to Baku on June 21, 2025, the co-main event pits Azerbaijan’s Rafael Fiziev against rising Chilean prospect Ignacio Bahamondes in a lightweight showdown. Fiziev, once considered a top-tier contender, is desperate to halt his three‑fight skid, while Bahamondes enters on a three‑fight hot streak, with plenty of weapons to end fights early. Here, you will find my Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes prediction for Saturday.
Our Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes Pick
- Pick: Rafael Fiziev via decision
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
- Bonus Bets For This Fight: BetMGM bonus code – ATSBONUS – get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win
Tale of the Tape
| Rafael Fiziev | Ignacio Bahamondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 27 |
| Reach | 71.5″ | 75.5″ |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Record | 12‑4‑0 (8 KOs, 1 submission) | 17‑5‑0 (11 KOs, 2 submissions) |
Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes Preview
Fiziev brings elite Muay Thai credentials and pro experience, but has hit turbulence of late. Since March 2023, he’s lost three straight UFC bouts, including a unanimous decision to Justin Gaethje in March 2025 and a knockout loss to Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023. Despite the setbacks, he still has an explosive skill set. He will also be fighting in his home country in this fight, which should mean a crowd that is fully behind him throughout this matchup.
Bahamondes is on fire, fresh off first‑round wins via submission over Jalin Turner in March 2025 and knockout victories over Manuel Torres and Christos Giagos in 2024 that earned him consecutive Performance of the Night awards. A rangy striker with a 75.5″ reach, Bahamondes peppers opponents at 7.09 significant strikes per minute. At just 27, he blends a fast pace with unpredictability, as he looks to earn a spot in the lightweight rankings.
Physically, Bahamondes has the edge, as his height and reach advantages may allow him to control the distance at which this fight is conducted. Yet Fiziev’s switch‑stance versatility means he can shift angles, mix kicks and takedowns, and force scrambles. Both fighters have seen the majority of their wins come via stoppages, so this fight could feature fireworks if they meet in open space.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline odds are tight, with Bahamondes a slight favorite at -130 and Fiziev at +110 at BetMGM.
- A decision is considered the most likely outcome by a slim margin going into this fight. The bout ending in a decision is at -135, a knockout ending is +150, and a submission is +600.
- For those who think this fight will end early, the fight to end inside the distance is at even money.
Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes Prediction
Fiziev’s three-fight losing streak is certainly a concern going into this fight, but his skill set offers pathways to redemption. He may struggle early against Bahamondes’ blitzing pace, but his switch stance and grappling ability should help him pivot momentum. Expect Fiziev to work patiently in this fight, mix in counters, and force later rounds where his precision will matter most. Bahamondes will land volume and fast combos early, but could gas if Fiziev drags it into three rounds.
My forecast: Fiziev edges the final two rounds and claims a unanimous decision. Back Fiziev as a slight underdog in Azerbaijan to delight the crowd in Baku.
