The curtain‑raiser at UFC 317 on June 28, 2025, is a bantamweight matchup between Payton Talbott (9‑1‑0) and Felipe Lima (14‑1‑0). With both fighters carrying serious talent into T‑Mobile Arena, this clash features an interesting stylistic battle. Talbott brings blistering striking and finishing power, while Lima offers veteran-level technique, grappling, and fight IQ. Here, you will find my Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima prediction for Saturday night.
Our Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima Pick
- Pick: Felipe Lima by decision
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Payton Talbott | Felipe Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 26 | 27 |
| Reach | 70.5″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Record | 9‑1‑0 | 14‑1‑0 |
Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima Preview
Talbott stands out with his high-volume, power-centric striking, landing around 6.7 significant strikes per minute. He’s earned seven knockouts and one submission from nine wins and has claimed two Performance of the Night bonuses in the UFC. His lone defeat came by decision in January versus the seasoned Raoni Barcelos, exposing some vulnerabilities against grappling pressure, but he’s shown elite heart and confidence in striking exchanges.
Lima, by contrast, has shown composure during a 14‑fight unbeaten streak since his debut loss. His 51% striking accuracy may seem modest, but he absorbs fewer strikes than Talbott and demonstrates superior defense all-around. His grappling edge is clear over Talbott, which could give him the same pathway to a win that Barcelos enjoyed over Talbott back in January.
Stylistically, Lima’s pressure-based, technical game plan may nullify Talbott’s explosive offense. Limiting striking exchanges with clinch work and ground control can stifle the younger striker’s rhythm and power output. Expect Lima to control the pace, mix takedowns, and let his experience shine in the later rounds.
Betting Insights
- The moneyline odds from DraftKings favor Lima at -180, while Talbott is the underdog in this fight at +150.
- This fight is expected to go the distance, with the over 2.5 rounds market available at -195, compared to +150 odds on the under.
- Lima to win by decision has the shortest odds of any fight outcome at +110.
- Talbott by knockout is available at +350 for those who think he will get a win with his trademark power.
Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima Prediction
Here’s how I see this fight playing out:
- Lima navigates early exchanges by using feints and pressure to close the distance.
- Lima lands takedowns and stays dominant in the grappling, sapping Talbott’s gas tank.
- Talbott has moments, especially in round one with his striking, but control tilts to Lima as the fight wears on.
- Lima secures a decision win, avoiding finish attempts but targeting points and control.
This fight script matches statistical trends. Lima’s striking defense and takedown success should overwhelm the less-tested grappling defense and endurance of Talbott. Instead of laying the vig with Lima to just win this fight, taking him to win by decision at a plus price seems like the best way to go.
