In a featherweight matchup at UFC Fight Night on June 21, 2025, Muhammad Naimov faces off against Bogdan Grad at Baku Crystal Hall. Naimov enters as a favorite, enjoying success so far in his UFC run. Grad, on the other hand, is a relatively new face in UFC and is looking for his second straight win since joining the promotion. For my Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad prediction, continue reading below.
Our Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad Pick
- Pick: Muhammad Naimov to win by decision or late stoppage
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For This Fight: Use BetMGM promo code ATSBONUS and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win!
Tale of the Tape
| Muhammad Naimov | Bogdan Grad | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 29 |
| Reach | 70″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 12–3–0 | 15–2–0 |
Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad Preview
Naimov brings proven durability and a finisher’s mindset, having earned 6 knockouts and 2 submissions among his 12 wins. So far, he has won four of his first five fights in UFC, with two of those wins coming inside the distance and two coming by decision. His only UFC setback was a late submission loss to Felipe Lima in June 2024.
Grad is 1-0 early in his UFC run with a knockout win over Lucas Alexander back in February. He has earned finishes in 80% of his career wins, grabbing nine knockouts and three submissions among his 15 career victories. His striking is precise (53.9% significant strike accuracy), but his strike defense is far from perfect and he could be vulnerable against a more experienced competitor in UFC here.
Stylistically, Grad will look to maintain distance, strike sharply, and possibly land a fight-ending blow. If Grad rules the first round, he could pull off the upset. However, Naimov’s heavier pace and wrestling threat likely shift the fight toward a decision or late finish.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline: Naimov is the favorite at approximately –285 at BetMGM. Grad sits at +230.
- Those betting on a method of victory in this fight could have a tough time. Each of Grad’s last three wins all came by different methods, while Naimov has alternated between decision and knockout wins in his last four victories.
Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad Prediction
While Grad’s karate and knockout threat cannot be ignored, and the underdog line offers speculative value, the most probable outcome comes from Naimov’s more well-rounded approach. Naimov’s experience on a stage like this one makes him likely to control the narrative, leading to a decision or late stoppage victory. We will take Naimov to win by decision at a more favorable price than the moneyline, though we certainly aren’t ruling out him getting a late stoppage before getting his hand raised.
