Mateusz Rebecki and Chris Duncan will do battle in the UFC’s lightweight division on Saturday night in Las Vegas. This main card matchup features two fighters coming off of wins in their last fights. Both men still have plenty of work to move up in a loaded lightweight division and will look to continue that process with a victory here. Continue reading to get my Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan prediction for this weekend.
Our Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan Pick
- Pick: Mateusz Rebecki to win
- Confidence: 4 out of 5 stars
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Tale of the Tape
| Fighter | Age | Reach | Stance | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rebecki | 32 | 66″ | Southpaw | 20‑2‑0 |
| Chris Duncan | 32 | 71″ | Orthodox | 13‑2‑0 |
Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan Preview
These two former Dana White’s Contender Series standouts have a lot in common. They have the same age (32), UFC record (4‑1), and training backgrounds. Both have spent considerable time at American Top Team. But their differences lie in their styles and physical attributes. Rebecki is a southpaw. He is shorter in height and reach but looks to make up for that by wrestling and accumulate volume striking. Duncan is taller with a 71‑inch reach. He relies on striking power and a sneaky submission ability.
Duncan has earned two straight submission victories. He has won each of his last two fights within the first two rounds via submission. But a third straight submission win is unlikely for the Scottish fighter. Rebecki has never been submitted in his professional MMA career. The only time he was ever stopped came in a knockout loss in 2014 in his fourth career fight.
Betting Insights
- Rebecki is a -205 favorite to win this fight. Duncan is the underdog at +170.
- The over/under for this fight is set at 1.5 rounds. That bet is heavily juiced to the over at -166. The under stands at +130.
- Each of Duncan’s last three fights have ended in submissions. He is 2-1 in those last three fights.
- 16 of Rebecki’s 20 career wins have come by finish.
- 10 of Duncan’s 13 career wins have come by knockout or submission.
Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan Prediction
Rebecki has an overwhelming advantage in takedown accuracy and defensive wrestling. This should allow him to dictate the fight’s pace and whether it stays upright or goes to ground. He excels at ground control and ground‑and‑pound as well. Duncan’s path to victory lies in preventing takedowns and landing fight‑ending strikes or submission counters. But I don’t think Rebecki is likely to offer many neck mistakes and he should be able to take advantage of Duncan’s lackluster takedown defense.
I am going to take Rebecki to win this fight on the moneyline. While there are higher possible returns by betting him via decision or submission, I think both of those outcomes are possible. I’ll go the safe route and take Rebecki on the flat line to come away with the win and end Duncan’s two-fight win streak.
