Lerone Murphy will meet Aaron Pico in the co-main event of UFC 319 this Saturday in Chicago. Murphy is unbeaten in his MMA career and will look to keep it that way against a fighter making his UFC debut. But Pico is more than your typical debut fighter and has an impressive Bellator highlight reel. Here, I break down this featherweight matchup and make my Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico prediction from a betting standpoint.
Our Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico Pick
- Pick: Lerone Murphy by decision
- Confidence: 3/5
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Tale of the Tape
| Lerone Murphy | Aaron Pico | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 28 |
| Reach | 73″ | 71″ |
| Stance / Gym | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 16-0-1 | 13-4-0 |
Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico Preview
Lerone Murphy is a methodical striker with excellent footwork and an iron chin. He’s unbeaten in his first 17 career fights. His most recent wins include unanimous decisions over Josh Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza. The only time Murphy has failed to win a fight was his UFC debut in 2019 when he fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a draw. He will aim to stay undefeated in the biggest fight of his career to date.
Aaron Pico is an elite former U17 freestyle wrestling world champion with thunderous power in every limb. His MMA record is not unblemished like Murphy’s. But he’s amassed nine KO/TKO victories and he wrapped up his time in Bellator with two straight knockout wins to set up this exciting matchup with the sixth-ranked featherweight in UFC.
Betting Insights
- Pico is the favorite in this fight at -175 and Murphy can be had at +145 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- This fight is expected to go the distance. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds and the over is juiced all the way to -215.
- Murphy has had five straight fights go the distance in UFC. That includes a pair of five-round decision wins in Fight Night main events.
- Pico’s last two fights have both ended via first-round knockout.
Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico Prediction
Pico’s finishing ability cannot be overlooked going into this fight. Murphy will likely look to manage distance, nullify takedown attempts, and push the pace across three rounds. His durability and output give him a high ceiling in a bout that could go to the judges.
UFC experience could also be a key factor in this fight. Pico doesn’t have any UFC experience while Murphy is a seasoned veteran when it comes to fighting under the bright lights in the promotion. While Pico has a ton of power, I think that his lack of experience in UFC could work to his detriment in this matchup.
My best bet for this fight is for Murphy to win via decision. He should be able to withstand the early onslaught from Pico and wear him down as the fight progresses.
