The clash between veteran Lauren Murphy and rising flyweight star Eduarda Moura on Saturday, July 12, 2025, promises high-stakes action from Nashville. Moura enters as a heavy favorite, while the veteran Murphy is looking to pull off an upset as a huge underdog. Here, we break down this matchup on the prelims and make our Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura prediction.
Our Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura Pick
- Pick: Eduarda Moura by decision
- Confidence: ★★★★★
- Bonus Bets For the Fight: BetMGM promo code – ATSBONUS – get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses
Tale of the Tape
| Lauren Murphy | Eduarda Moura | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 41 | 31 |
| Reach | 68″ | 66″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 16–6–0 | 11–1–0 |
Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura Preview
Eduarda Moura returns to the octagon after a standout performance at UFC 309, earning a unanimous decision victory to put her at 11–1 professionally. That win was a nice response to her first professional loss to Denise Gomes in June of 2024. Her aggressive top control and striking are clear assets. But I’d like to see Moura move onto higher quality competition if she can win here, as she has yet to notch a signature win in UFC.
Murphy, who once challenged for the title against Valentina Shevchenko, brings experience to the octagon at 41 years of age. While her veteran instincts and finishing ability (8 KOs in 16 wins) are impressive, a recent two-year layoff could come with rust. We don’t know what to expect from Murphy after so much time off, but oddsmakers are clearly not expecting her to win this fight.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline odds: Moura is the heavy favorite at -550, Murphy is +400 to get an upset win.
- Prop bets: Both fighters have seen each of their last two fights go to the judges, so betting on a decision win could be a better strategy than playing either fighter on the moneyline.
Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura Prediction
Here are my keys to this fight between Lauren Murphy and Eduarda Moura:
- Cardio & pace: Moura will pressure early and maintain volume, making Murphy defend rather than dictate.
- Experience vs youth: Murphy might land occasional counters, but likely not enough to deter Moura’s consistent output.
- Rest vs Rust: We are concerned about Murphy’s ability to keep up with a fighter that is 10 years younger than her after Murphy has spent years away from the octagon.
Eduarda Moura’s skill set and recent form should give her a pathway to secure a methodical decision victory. Though Murphy’s credentials and knockout power provide intrigue, the age gap, Murphy’s inactivity, and Moura’s upward trajectory suggest a straightforward victory is coming for the Brazilian. I understand the temptation to bet Moura on the moneyline here, but those odds are not worth betting into. Instead, you can get a better price betting Moura to win by decision, and that’s our recommendation for now.
