UFC 316 lands at Prudential Center in Newark on Saturday, June 7, 2025, and the main-card middleweight clash between Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer has captured the attention of bettors. Both athletes will look for a second straight win here, making this three-round bout one of the highest-stakes match-ups outside the two championship fights. Here, we make our Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer prediction for Saturday.
Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer Preview
Gastelum steps in with a record of 20-9 from 29 professional appearances, 6 wins by knockout and 6 by submission. The 33-year-old southpaw owns 23 UFC bouts, meaning more than five hours of Octagon time. He out-pointed Daniel Rodriguez last June to steady the ship after a submission loss to Sean Brady. Gastelum averages 3.74 significant strikes landed per minute at 46% accuracy and attempts 1.10 takedowns every fifteen minutes with 34% success. He has lost six of his last nine fights and will look to avoid another defeat against Pyfer in Newark.
Pyfer, aged 28, holds a 13-3 record with 9 knockouts and 3 submissions, translating to a 69% knockout rate. Standing 6 foot 2 with a 75-inch reach, Bodybagz enjoys a five-inch height and three-inch reach edge. He has won four of his last five fights, including a 1:25 demolition of Marc-André Barriault at UFC 303 last June. Pyfer lands 3.72 significant strikes per minute at 41% accuracy, scores 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes with an eye-opening 41% success rate, and hunts for nearly one submission per fight.
Stylistically, Gastelum relies on hand speed, southpaw angles, and the ability to mix boxing combinations into level-change threats. His compact frame helps him dart inside, yet leaves him conceding distance against longer strikers. Pyfer fights patiently behind a stiff jab and a crushing left hook, using feints to draw returns before unleashing power. His wrestling background lets him secure topside control when required, and his submission win over Abdul Razak Alhassan showed finishing ability on the mat.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline: Pyfer -400, Gastelum +310.
- Fight to Go the Distance: No -140, Yes +100
- How Will the Fight End?: KO/TKO/DQ +175, Submission +275, Decision +100
The market consensus positions Pyfer as the clear front-runner, driven by his reach, youth, recent results, and bettors’ confidence that he can do what elite strikers such as Israel Adesanya could not: stop Gastelum inside the distance.
Before betting on Gastelum vs Pyfer, make sure to claim our BetMGM promo code to bet on the fight with their first bet offer. That offer will yield up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Click the Claim Bonus button above and sign up using code ATSBONUS to get started.
Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer Prediction
Gastelum’s output edge is minimal, and his takedown accuracy sits just above 30%, while Pyfer converts nearly 4 of every 10 attempts. The younger man has the edge in knockout rate. Gastelum’s chin has never truly cracked, yet his last stoppage victory dates back to 2017, and his recent wins have come on the scorecards. His defensive wrestling remains solid, but Pyfer’s raw strength and timing have overwhelmed every opponent outside veteran grappler Jack Hermansson.
Expect Gastelum to jab his way inside early, trying to offset the reach deficit and maybe sprinkle in level changes to force Pyfer backward. The danger is that Gastelum’s entries often linger in the pocket a beat too long. Pyfer’s counter left hook and straight right are built for those exchanges. If Pyfer senses the veteran slowing, he can mix double-leg shots and elbows from the top to amplify damage without burning extra gas in round three.
My pick is Joe Pyfer by TKO late in round two. The combination of youth, physicality, and finishing instincts gives him multiple avenues to cash on the moneyline or via his knockout prop. Gastelum’s durability means an early blitz is no guarantee, yet sustained pressure and body work should break the former interim title challenger down before the judges are required. For bettors seeking plus money, Pyfer inside the distance provides a balanced risk-reward profile.
