Kamaru Usman and Joaquin Buckley take center stage this weekend in the welterweight main event of the UFC Fight Night card from Atlanta. Usman, the seasoned former champion, returns after a lengthy hiatus to face Buckley, a rising knockout artist. Here, you will get my Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley prediction before fight night.
Our Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley Pick
- Pick: Joaquin Buckley to win by decision
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Kamaru Usman | Joaquin Buckley | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 38 | 31 |
| Reach | 76″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Record | 20‑4 | 21‑6 |
Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley Preview
- Experience vs Momentum: Usman is a former welterweight champion with championship rounds experience, but he’s endured a three‑fight skid and sat out all of 2024 to heal nagging injuries and recalibrate mentally.
- Buckley’s ascent: Buckley, ranked in the top 7, boasts high‑profile finishes over Colby Covington and Stephen Thompson. His evolution as a fighter has been widely noted.
- Styles clash: Usman relies on high‑level wrestling and control, while Buckley brings explosive striking power and unpredictable angles, as evidenced by his highlight reel knockouts.
- Physical factors: Both fighters share identical reach, but the age gap and ring rust could favor Buckley.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline Odds: Buckley is a solid favorite, trading at −275 at bet365. Usman is the underdog at +225.
- Implied probabilities: Buckley carries a 70–75% win probability in betting markets; Usman sits at roughly 30%.
- Over/Under Insights: The over/under for this fight is set at 4.5 rounds. The under is favored slightly at -130, while the over sits at -110.
Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley Prediction
This fight is interesting stylistically, with Usman’s elite wrestling and championship-level cardio versus Buckley’s striking explosiveness and upward trajectory. Usman has always excelled at imposing his game plan, controlling pace, mixing takedowns, and wearing opponents down. However, his recent performances showed signs of decline, and a long layoff raises questions around his sharpness, and confidence.
If Usman comes out strong and can impose his wrestling early, he could secure takedowns and snag a decision. But if Buckley evades the early barrage and lands counters or forces Usman into striking exchanges, momentum will shift toward Buckley. His durability and confidence in deep waters suggest he can handle five rounds under pressure.
For bettors, the value lies with Buckley to claim a decision or late TKO. The odds reflect a gap, but Buckley’s path to victory is clear: keep it standing, use volume, mix jabs with combos, and avoid wrestling scrambles. Usman must dictate grappling and grind, while any failure to do so spells trouble for the former champ.
Final Thoughts
Given Buckley’s momentum, age advantage, and well-rounded improvements, the smart money lies with him to outpoint Usman over five rounds. Expect a technical, strategic affair that culminates in Buckley’s hand being raised, continuing his ascent and providing another sign that Usman’s peak may be behind him.
