As UFC heads to Nashville, Tennessee on Saturday, July 12, 2025, Junior Tafa will take on Tuco Tokkos. In this fight, both fighters have knockout power, with the majority of their career wins coming via KO. Here, we analyze this fight and determine which fighter will come out on top and how in our Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos prediction.
Our Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos Pick
- Pick: Junior Tafa to win by knockout
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Junior Tafa | Tuco Tokkos | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 35 |
| Reach | 72 in | 76 in |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 6‑3 (6 KOs) | 10‑5 (6 KOs) |
Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos Preview
Junior Tafa is the definition of a feast or famine fighter. He enters the Octagon for this fight with six knockouts in his six career wins. But he has also been stopped in two of his three career losses after joining UFC. He came back from losses against Valter Walker and Marcos Rogério de Lima with a second‑round TKO over Sean Sharaf. Tafa will be hunting a knockout again in this fight, though I’m concerned about his ability to adjust if he can’t land a big shot to end it.
Tuco Tokkos has a 10‑5 record and also has six career wins via knockout. Tokkos has fought twice in UFC, losing both of those fights. He was submitted by Oumar Sy in his debut before losing via decision against Navajo Stirling back in December. Here, Tokkos probably doesn’t need to worry about losing a decision, but he will need to worry about the knockout power of Tafa. Getting the fight to the ground would be a great way to alleviate that concern.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline odds sit at –175 for Tafa and +150 for Tokkos.
- Tafa has not seen a third round in any of his career wins, losing his only career fight that has gone to the third.
- Tokkos has seen three of his last four fights end in the opening round.
Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos Prediction
Tafa enters this fight as a more polished striker, combining elite Muay Thai technique with raw power. My question going into this fight is whether Tafa can defend takedowns well enough to win this fight. If Tafa can stay on his feet, he should win easily. If he can’t, he could be in trouble.
Tokkos, though durable, hasn’t demonstrated the same level of finishing or elite-level striking as Tafa. His path to victory requires survival in the early rounds and grinding out a decision or scoring a stoppage on the ground.
Expect Tafa to control range with punches and leg kicks and for the Aussie to break through with a knockout in Round 1 or early Round 2. A KO or TKO win for Tafa is most probable, given his consistent knockout output and Tokkos’ questionable chin under pressure.
