The UFC 317 heavyweight fight between Jhonata Diniz and Alvin Hines is a high-stakes battle as both fighters step into the T‑Mobile Arena octagon on Saturday, June 28, 2025. Diniz, the 34‑year‑old knockout specialist, returns aiming to rebound from his first career defeat, while the 33‑year‑old Hines makes his UFC debut with an unblemished 7‑0 record. Here, you can find my Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines prediction before these heavyweights do battle.
Our Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines Pick
- Pick: Jhonata Diniz to win by knockout
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Jhonata Diniz | Alvin Hines | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 33 |
| Reach | 79.5″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 8‑1‑0 | 7‑0‑0 |
Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines Preview
Diniz enters this matchup with a kickboxing background and a heavyweight record full of explosive finishes. Of his eight wins, seven have come by way of knockout. His 57% striking accuracy and output of 3.36 significant strikes landed per minute mark him as a dangerous stand‑up fighter. His only defeat came at UFC 309 when Marcin Tybura beat him via doctor’s stoppage following ground control and elbows, hinting at a possible vulnerability to grapplers.
Hines, on the other hand, may be less tested in globally recognized promotions, but he carries a perfect 7‑0 pro record into his UFC debut. He balances knockout power with submission acumen, having recorded three knockouts and three submission victories in his career. The question here will be whether he comes out and performs on the biggest stage of his career and if he can get Diniz to the ground to avoid the striking of the Brazilian.
The stylistic contrast is clear in this fight. Diniz’s Muay Thai and kickboxing base make him a dangerous striker at range. Hines will look to mix in grappling with striking, likely attempting takedowns or clinch control. Diniz’s takedown defense suggests he won’t easily be taken into deep water. However, if Hines forces the fight to the canvas, his three submission wins show he can threaten from the mat.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline odds favor Diniz heavily. He is -325 at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Hines is +260 to win in his UFC debut.
- The over/under for this fight is set at 1.5 rounds at -115 on both sides, which means we could be in for an early finish, or a fight that lasts into the third round.
- Only one of Diniz’s nine career fights has seen the third round.
Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines Prediction
Given his height, reach, and proven knockout ability, Diniz should keep this fight standing and control it from the outside. He absorbs fewer than three significant strikes per minute and lands over three, giving him a clear statistical upper hand in striking exchanges. His orthodox stance and kickboxing pedigree make him a textbook heavy hitter who will limit Hines’ grappling advances by landing big shots.
Hines will likely attempt to close the distance and initiate takedowns. However, Diniz’s takedown defense and cardio conditioning make it risky for Hines to get in close. Most of Diniz’s fights end in stoppages in round one or two, which makes the under 1.5‑round line an appealing play. A knockout victory for Diniz in the early rounds is the most probable outcome.
Bettors seeking a higher‑payout wager may consider Hines on the moneyline, given that he has never lost. But my lean remains with Diniz, and specifically, a knockout finish which offers strong upside given his history.
