On Saturday, June 28, Jack Hermansson and Gregory Rodrigues will face off in a middleweight fight at UFC 317. Both men come into this fight with a ton of octagon experience, though consistency has eluded both of them in recent years. Here, I break down this interesting middleweight matchup and give you my Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues prediction in the betting markets.
Our Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues Pick
- Pick: Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Jack Hermansson | Gregory Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37 | 33 |
| Reach | 77.5″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 24‑8‑0 | 16‑6‑0 |
Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues Preview
Jack Hermansson is fighting for the first time since February of 2024, when he won via unanimous decision against Joe Pyfer. That fight was Hermansson’s first since 2022, but rust was not an issue for the veteran out of Norway. Hermansson hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2019. Getting a second straight win here would be huge for him at this stage of his career.
Rodrigues had a three-fight winning streak snapped in his last outing. He lost to Jared Cannonier in February of this year, getting knocked out in the fourth round of that fight. Rodrigues has 10 career knockouts in 16 wins. But his fighting style has left him vulnerable to eating big shots, like we saw against Cannonier in his last octagon appearance.
Both of these men have double-digit knockout totals in their professional MMA careers and we could very well see one of them add to their total in that department on Saturday night in Las Vegas.
Betting Insights
- Rodrigues is the favorite going into this fight at DraftKings Sportsbook, with odds of -218 compared to +180 for Hermansson.
- The over/under for this fight is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over juiced to -145, while the under comes in at +114.
- Each of Rodrigues’ last three fights have gone to a third round.
- Hermansson has gone the distance in five of his last six fights heading into this one.
Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues Prediction
This bout is a crossroads for both athletes. Rodrigues needs to reclaim momentum after a main event loss, while Hermansson aims to dispel any suspicion of decline following a lengthy layoff. Betting odds reflect the Brazilian’s power advantage, but Hermansson’s cerebral style should keep this competitive. Both men in this fight have the ability to earn finishes, but there are questions about the ability for both of them to avoid trouble due to a lack of consistency.
I see Rodrigues overwhelming Hermansson with dynamic striking early, breaking down Hermansson’s defenses with his power shots. That said, if Hermansson smothers the pace and can force the Brazilian into grappling exchanges, he could redirect the fight to decision territory. We’ll go with Rodrigues to win with a late knockout, but it is admittedly hard to feel confident in either direction.
Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO in Round 3.
