On Saturday, June 28, UFC 317 will be headlined by the lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. Topuria comes into this fight a heavy favorite despite moving up in weight class from featherweight to compete for this division’s championship. To find out if I think he can get the job done against a former lightweight title holder in Las Vegas on Saturday, continue reading to get my Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira prediction.
Our Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira Pick
- Pick: Ilia Topuria by knockout
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Ilia Topuria | Charles Oliveira | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 35 |
| Reach | 69″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 16–0 (6 KO, 8 Sub) | 35–10, 1 NC (10 KO, 21 Sub) |
Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira Preview
Coming into UFC 317, Ilia Topuria is undefeated and ranked third in the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings. He has scored back-to-back knockouts over Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanowski in featherweight title fights. Since those wins, he vacated the featherweight championship to pursue lightweight gold. While there will always be questions about a fighter’s ability to adjust to life in another weight class, Topuria’s ability to deliver with both striking and wrestling could ease those concerns.
Charles Oliveira has an experience edge, having fought as a lightweight before in his UFC career. But Oliveira’s recent performances have raised questions about whether or not he is too far past his prime to wear a championship around his waist again. He is 2-2 in his last four fights and needed a decision to beat Michael Chandler in his last fight, something that would be much tougher to accomplish against someone with the talent of Topuria.
Oliveira enters with confidence, stating publicly that he plans to knock Topuria out, an impressive declaration given that Topuria has never lost, let alone been knocked out. Regardless of the pre-fight chatter, both men are looking to become the next lightweight champion in a division that the winner could dominate for a while, with Islam Makhachev moving to welterweight.
Betting Insights
- Topuria is a heavy favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook at -455, while Oliveira is at +350 to get the title back.
- Despite being a five-round main event, the over/under for this fight is set at 1.5 rounds, with the over at -145 and the under at +114.
- Topuria is -175 to win by knockout, with a first-round knockout win for La Leyenda at +225.
Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira Prediction
Oliveira is always dangerous thanks to his ability to get submissions and his championship experience. But Topuria could be even better at lightweight than he was at featherweight, as he can avoid as challenging a weight cut without sacrificing his athleticism. This suggests he could order the pace and threaten early, while his power will be a constant threat throughout the fight.
Considering all angles, the sharpest play is Topuria winning by early stoppage, most likely a knockout. The odds and recent betting patterns back this view, and Oliveira, despite his ability to create finishes, has shown in recent fights that he is less likely than Topuria to win this one early.
