Saturday’s UFC 319 preliminary bout between Gerald Meerschaert and Michał Oleksiejczuk features two UFC veterans. Both men have been fighting in UFC since 2017 or before and have seen better days in the octagon. Oleksiejczuk enters as the clear betting favorite in a fight where both men could really use a win. Here, I take a closer look at this middleweight prelim matchup and give you my Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk prediction.
Our Gerald Meerschaert vs Michał Oleksiejczuk Pick
- Pick: Michał Oleksiejczuk by knockout
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Gerald Meerschaert | Michał Oleksiejczuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37 | 30 |
| Reach | 77″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Record | 37-19-0 | 20-9-0 (1 NC) |
Gerald Meerschaert vs Michał Oleksiejczuk Preview
Meerschaert is a veteran grappling specialist with a reputation for securing submissions. He’s earned 29 of his 37 career wins by submission. But Meerschaert has lost two fights in a row and four of his last six. His last loss came via decision against Brad Tavares in April. Meerschaert will hope to avoid a three-fight losing streak here and to get his career back on the right track.
Oleksiejczuk is much younger than Meerschaert at age 30. He is the more dangerous striker when compared to the grapper in Meerschaert. Oleksiejczuk averages 5.27 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy. He will try to strike his way to keeping Meerschaert at a safe distance and away from any takedown opportunities.
Betting Insights
- Oleksiejczuk is favored at -238 to win this fight. Meerschaert is +195 on the other side.
- The over/under for this fight is set at 1.5 rounds. The odds are juiced slightly to the under at -135 and the over is +105.
- Seven of Oleksiejczuk’s last eight fights have ended inside the distance.
- Three of Meerschaert’s last four fights have ended inside the distance.
Gerald Meerschaert vs Michał Oleksiejczuk Prediction
Oleksiejczuk’s path to win this fight lies in his striking. He will outstrike Meerschaert as long as he can avoid being dragged into grappling exchanges. Meerschaert’s submission game is his best route to win this fight. But Oleksiejczuk’s takedown defense (48%) is solid enough to frustrate those attempts for a good portion of the fight.
I expect this fight to remain standing for the most part. We could see Meerschaert control a round on the ground at some point. But I don’t think he has enough gas in the tank to dominate two or more rounds at this stage of his career. I’m going to go with Oleksiejczuk to get the win by knockout for his second win in a row.
