Bantamweights Elijah Smith and Toshiomi Kazama will fight at UFC Fight Night from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. Smith picked up a win in his UFC debut last time out and Kazama got his first UFC win in his last fight. Both men will look to pick up their second win in UFC in this matchup. To find out who I think that will be, continue reading to get my Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama prediction.
Our Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama Pick
- Pick: Elijah Smith to win by decision
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Elijah Smith | Toshiomi Kazama | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 22 | 28 |
| Height | 5’9″ | 5’7″ |
| Reach | 71″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 8‑1‑0 | 11‑4‑0 |
Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama Preview
Elijah Smith comes into this fight on a six-fight winning streak that predates his time in UFC. His win over Vince Morales via unanimous decision moved him to 1-0 early in his UFC career. Toshiomi Kazama got his first UFC win by submission over Charalampos Grigoriou in August of 2024. He has six submission wins out of his 11 career MMA victories. But he has also lost by first-round knockout twice since joining UFC.
This fight is a great litmus test for both men. A win for Kazama would move him to the .500 mark in UFC after a disastrous start. From there he might be able to pursue some better prelim card fights in the future. A win for Smith could make him a main card fighter sooner rather than later.
Betting Insights
- Smith is a heavy favorite going into this fight at -750. Kazama is +525 to pull off the upset.
- The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds and the under is favored at -140.
- Smith has had two straight fights go to decision.
- All three of Kazama’s UFC fights have ended inside the distance.
Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama Prediction
I’m not sure that this fight is going to be quite as lopsided as the betting odds would suggest. Kazama is dangerous when it comes to submissions and he could take this fight to the mat and prevent Smith from doing what he wants to do. But I think that over the course of three rounds, we should see Smith emerge as the superior fighter in the end.
I think that the best bet for this fight is to take Smith by decision. The over/under and moneyline suggest that a Smith win via stoppage is the expectation. But a bet on a decision win by Smith comes at a much better price and aligns with Smith’s last two fights going the distance.
