Chase Hooper and Alexander Hernandez will fight in the UFC lightweight division at UFC 319 on Saturday night. Both fighters come into this matchup on winning streaks and will look to keep those streaks alive in this matchup. Which fighter will win the day on Saturday? We attempt to answer that below as we make our Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez prediction.
Our Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez Pick
- Pick: Chase Hooper by decision
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Chase Hooper | Alexander Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 32 |
| Reach | 74″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Record | 16-3-1 | 16-8-0 |
Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez Preview
Chase Hooper enters this lightweight contest having secured five consecutive victories. His last three fights were dominant wins over Clay Guida, Viacheslav Borshchev, and Jim Miller. Hooper is a rising grappling specialist whose striking skills are also improving as time goes on. He has a major size and reach advantage going into this fight and he will look to use those attributes to his advantage to bend Hernandez to his will.
Alexander Hernandez comes into this fight on a two-fight winning streak. His recent form includes a decision win over Kurt Holobaugh in March of 2025. Hernandez’s striking output lags behind that of hooper. Hooper’s experience is an asset but the physical tools of Hooper will be hard for the UFC veteran to overcome.
Betting Insights
- Hooper is a heavy favorite to win this fight at -325 and Hernandez is +260 to end Hooper’s winning streak.
- The over/under for the fight is set at 2.5 rounds. The under is favored slightly at -125 and the over is -105.
- Three of Hooper’s last four fights ended inside the distance.
- Hernandez has had five straight fights go to decision dating back to 2023.
Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez Prediction
We have two fighters here who try to win their fights in very different ways. Hooper’s top priority is to bring things to the ground and use his submission skills to force his opponent to submit to his will. Hernandez has been grinding out decision wins lately and is a more well-rounded fighter. But Hernandez isn’t as good at any one thing as Hooper is at grappling and I think that will be the difference in this matchup.
My best bet for this fight is for Chase Hooper to win via decision. He is going to be able to shoot takedowns and prevent Hernandez from using his power and experience to level the playing field. I don’t think that Hernandez will be submitted here but Hooper should still win comfortably on the scorecards.
