Bryce Mitchell and Said Nurmagomedov will face off in the UFC’s bantamweight division during the promotion’s Fight Night card in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. Both fighters come into this matchup off a loss in their last outing. They will look to rebound here as Mitchell moves down from the featherweight division for this fight. Continue reading to get my Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov prediction for Saturday.
Our Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov Pick
- Pick: Said Nurmagomedov by submission
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Bryce Mitchell | Said Nurmagomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 33 |
| Reach | 70″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Record | 17–4 | 18–4 |
Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov Preview
Bryce Mitchell returns to bantamweight after a turbulent stretch at featherweight. He enters this fight with a 17–4 professional record. He’s got nine career submission wins but only one of those has come on the big stage in UFC. Mitchell has dropped two of his last three fights inside the distance. That includes a submission loss to Jean Silva in April in his most recent fight. His struggles at featherweight have prompted him to move back down a division. He should be competitive in a lower weight class but questions still remain for the 30-year-old.
Said Nurmagomedov is a more mature and rounded grappler than his opponent in this fight. His 18–4 record includes seven UFC wins with five finishes. He’s never been finished in his MMA career so far. Nurmagomedov dropped a unanimous decision to Vinicius Oliveira in his last outing in February. Nurmagomedov will press forward with intense takedown pressure and a functional striking game that averages around 3.38 significant strikes per minute.
Betting Insights
- Mitchell is the favorite to win this fight at -135. Nurmagomedov enters this fight at +114.
- This fight is expected to go the distance. The total is set at 2.5 rounds and the over stands at -166. Under 2.5 rounds is available at +130 for those who anticipate an early ending.
- Three of Nurmagomedov’s last four wins have come by submission.
- Mitchell has seen three straight fights end inside the distance. He is 1-2 in those three fights.
Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov Prediction
I see this fight hinging on the following factors:
- Mitchell’s path: Mitchell has slick jiu‑jitsu and is hard to prepare for as a southpaw.
- Nurmagomedov’s advantage: The Russian has proven wrestling ability and has never been finished as a professional MMA fighter.
- Weight cut concern: Mitchell’s drop to bantamweight may hamper his durability and timing. But he could also be bigger and stronger on fight night as long as his cut goes smoothly.
- Momentum: Both fighters are 1-2 in their last three fights and both men should be desperate to get a win here.
With these factors in mind, I’m going to go with Nurmagomedov to get a win via submission. He is going to look to shoot takedowns and keep Mitchell from striking effectively. I think he will do just that and hand Mitchell a third stoppage loss in his last three fights.
