At UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, lightweights Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano will do battle at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Both men are ranked in the top 15 in the lightweight division coming into this fight, with a win set to boost the stock of whoever can claim it. Here, I will break down this lightweight matchup and give you my Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano prediction before fight night.
Our Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano Pick
- Pick: Renato Moicano moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Beneil Dariush | Renato Moicano | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36 | 36 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’11” |
| Reach | 72″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Record | 22‑6‑1 | 20‑6‑1 |
Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano Preview
Renato Moicano arrives at UFC 317 having won four of his last five fights. His most recent fight was a loss, though, as he failed to capture the lightweight championship against Islam Makhachev. Moicano was submitted in that fight, which was his first submission loss since 2017. Here, the Brazilian will look to bounce back and prove that he can still be considered a legitimate contender in this division, one that Makhachev is leaving to fight as a welterweight.
Dariush, meanwhile, has lost two straight fights coming into this matchup. He has been knocked out by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan in his last two fights, failing to get out of the first round in either of those matchups. A more competitive fight is expected for Dariush here against another fighter moving the wrong way in the lightweight rankings, but Dariush could fall out of the rankings entirely if he suffers a third straight defeat.
Moicano brings superior striking volume and accuracy with 4.36 significant strikes landed per minute at 56% accuracy, against Dariush’s 3.78 strikes per minute at 54% accuracy. But Moicano also absorbs more strikes and will need to avoid getting himself into trouble against a fighter who is desperate to end his losing streak.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline odds favor Moicano slightly. He is -115 to win this fight at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Dariush is at -105 to get the job done.
- The over/under for this fight is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over at -110 and the under at -120.
- Dariush has failed to make it out of the first round in two straight fights, losing by knockout in both.
- Moicano has not seen the third round in three straight fights himself.
Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano Prediction
After analyzing this fight from all angles, Moicano stands out to win this fight for me. His sharp striking and grappling threat across all ranges make him a formidable opponent for a struggling Dariush. Dariush must land his powerful southpaw shots early and control grappling exchanges to stay competitive, but his chin in his recent losses raises red flags.
We don’t hold Moicano losing to someone as good as Makhachev against him too harshly coming into this matchup. As the fight progresses, stress on Dariush’s cardio and chin will build, setting the stage for either a late finish or a clear decision. A decision should go the way of Moicano, though he may secure a late stoppage if Dariush fades.
