Asu Almabayev will face Jose Ochoa in an interesting flyweight matchup at UFC Fight Night in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. Almabayev is ranked ninth in the flyweight division rankings and will look to move up with a win here. But to do that he will need to overcome a fighter who has lost just once in his pro MMA career. Here, I break down this flyweight matchup and bring you my Asu Almabayev vs Jose Ochoa prediction.
Our Asu Almabayev vs Jose Ochoa Pick
- Pick: Asu Almabayev by decision
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Asu Almabayev | Jose Ochoa | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 24 |
| Height | 5′4″ | 5′7″ |
| Reach | 65″ | 67″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Record | 21‑3‑0 | 8‑1‑0 (1 NC) |
Asu Almabayev vs Jose Ochoa Preview
Asu Almabayev enters this matchup ranked and battle-tested. He has victories over top flyweights and a strong submission arsenal with 9 subs in 21 wins. He suffered a loss in his last fight to Manel Kape by knockout. He will look to bounce back from his first loss in UFC in this fight here against a quality fighter in Ochoa.
Standing opposite Almabayev is 24-year-old Jose Ochoa. The Peruvian southpaw is 8-1 in his professional MMA career and 1-1 since joining UFC. He delivered a stunning 11‑second KO against Cody Durden in June and has carried that result into this short‑notice opportunity. Ochoa is stepping in after Ramazan Temirov pulled out of this fight due to a failed drug test.
This fight will hinge on Ochoa’s early punching power versus Almabayev’s ability to get it to the mat and grind through three rounds. Ochoa’s aggression and youth are real factors here. But the experience gap and grappling acumen heavily favor Almabayev.
Betting Insights
- Almabayev is a slight favorite going into this fight at -125. Ochoa is at +105 to get a second straight win.
- DraftKings offers +150 on under 2.5 rounds. The over 2.5 rounds stands at -195 in a fight that is expected to go the distance.
- All eight of Ochoa’s career wins have come inside the distance.
- Three of Almabayev’s four UFC wins have come by decision.
Asu Almabayev vs Jose Ochoa Prediction
I expect Ochoa to open with finishing intent, using southpaw jabs coupled with looping left hands. His early burst could earn him success in round one if Almabayev’s takedowns aren’t landing. But Almabayev’s composure and wrestling efficiency should turn things in his favor in round two or in round three. From there he’ll start dominating time in top control and limit Ochoa’s output.
Conditioning could be a factor given that Ochoa has gone past round two just once in his career. Almabayev rarely loses rounds on gas and his experience in grappling-heavy fights gives him a strong edge late. I will take Almabayev to win this fight via decision as he should drag this fight into deep waters and grind Ochoa down.
