As UFC 317 approaches on Saturday, June 28, 2025, all eyes turn to the co-main event at T‑Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Reigning flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defends his belt for the fourth time against New Zealand’s knockout artist Kai Kara‑France. Two former “The Ultimate Fighter” teammates now stand on opposite ends of the Octagon, with UFC gold up for grabs. Here, I break down this championship fight and give you my Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France prediction.
Our Pantoja vs Kara‑France Pick
- Pick: Alexandre Pantoja by decision
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For This Fight: Click the Claim Bonus button below to get our DraftKings bonus code to bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets on this fight.
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ 
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Promo Code: Click To Claim
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Promo Code: Click To Claim
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara‑France |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 35 | 32 |
| Reach | 68″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 29–5 (19 finishes) | 25–11 (15 finishes) |
Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara‑France Preview
Pantoja is near the top of his powers. Undefeated in the UFC since 2020, he’s on a 7‑fight winning streak, including three title defenses culminating with a slick submission finish over Kai Asakura at UFC 310. With a black belt in BJJ and elite-level takedowns (2.74 per 15 minutes) and a nearly unbreakable chin, he’s widely regarded as one of the most complete flyweights in UFC history.
Kai Kara‑France is the textbook underdog challenger. He is explosive, heavy-hitting, and fearless. He rebounded from two straight losses with a first‑round KO of Steve Erceg in August 2024 and holds a reputation as a dangerous front‑leg kicker and straight puncher. He’s got 12 KO/TKO wins and excellent takedown defense, but he’s never faced a grappler like Pantoja in his prime.
The dynamics of this fight are clear. Pantoja will attempt to drag Kara-France into deep water, mixing grappling control with strikes from the top, while Kara‑France will need a fast start, dictating pace with his striking before the champion can implement his ground game.
Betting Insights
- Pantoja opened around –215 and has since drifted to -238 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Kara-France is the underdog at +195.
- The over/under for this fight sits at 3.5 rounds, which is heavily juiced to the over at -166, while the under stands at +130.
- As far as method of victory props go, the shortest odds are for Pantoja to win by decision at +175 and by submission at +225.
- For those who believe in Kara-France to pull off the upset, his odds to win by knockout are an appetizing +550.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara‑France Prediction
In my opinion, Pantoja wins this fight by decision or late submission. Expect him to control position in the middle rounds, landing takedowns and keeping the Kiwi grounded and unable to land big shots from his feet. Kara‑France might threaten early, but he lacks the sustained offense to finish this. If the fight enters the championship rounds, Pantoja’s cardio and grappling should seal the deal. A late submission or dominant decision are both viable outcomes for the co-main event of this UFC 317 card.
