Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 3/31/2025

Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals on March 31, 2025, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. The Blue Jays currently sit with a record of 2-2, indicating an average start to the season, while the Nationals trail with a disappointing 1-2 record. The Blue Jays are coming off a strong performance where they showcased their offensive capabilities, although their overall ranking in home runs (26th) and stolen bases (27th) leaves much to be desired.

Bowden Francis, projected to start for Toronto, is ranked as the 182nd best starting pitcher in MLB, which places him among the lower tier of pitchers. His projections indicate he will likely pitch around 4.0 innings, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs, but his strikeout rate of 3.5 batters per game is concerning. Conversely, Mike Soroka of the Nationals is also struggling, projecting to pitch 4.8 innings with 2.4 earned runs allowed. Both pitchers face challenging matchups against offenses that have shown inconsistency.

The Blue Jays' offense holds an average ranking at 16th in MLB, but their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities will be crucial. They are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -165, translating to an implied team total of 4.71 runs. The Nationals, on the other hand, are underdogs at +140, with an average implied total of 3.79 runs.

With both teams seeking momentum, this game presents an opportunity for the Blue Jays to solidify their standing and potentially improve upon their early-season performance. The projections suggest that while both teams have their struggles, the Blue Jays have a clearer path to victory, especially given their home-field advantage at Rogers Centre.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Mike Soroka is projected to throw 79 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Josh Bell is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Luis Garcia Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected offense, Bowden Francis will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Grading out in the 99th percentile, the hardest ball Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 117.6 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 73 games at home (+12.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+3.45 Units / 18% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.