Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 4/1/2025

Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays welcome the Washington Nationals to Rogers Centre on April 1, 2025, for the second game of their interleague series. After an exciting matchup yesterday, where the Blue Jays secured a win, the teams now look to continue building on their early-season narratives. Toronto, boasting a 3-2 record, is off to a strong start, while Washington struggles with a 1-3 record, marking a tough beginning to their season.

Starting for the Blue Jays is Jose Berrios, who has had a rocky start with a 0-1 record and an alarming ERA of 10.80 this year. Despite the poor numbers, Berrios's 5.01 xFIP suggests he may be due for a turnaround, as he faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 29th in home runs. Berrios projects to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs, but he will need to improve upon his 5.2 hits and 1.4 walks allowed per game to keep the Nationals at bay.

On the mound for the Nationals is Trevor Williams, another right-hander who has struggled, projecting to pitch only 4.7 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs. Williams's performance has been shaky, and his high walk rate (1.5 walks projected) could give the Blue Jays offense, which ranks 16th in the league, an opportunity to capitalize.

Both teams have underwhelming power rankings, with the Blue Jays ranked 18th in bullpen performance and the Nationals at 27th. However, Toronto is favored in this matchup, with betting lines showing the Blue Jays as a -160 favorite. The projected game total sits at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive game ahead. As the Blue Jays look to build momentum, they will need Berrios to harness his potential against a struggling Nationals team.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's 88.8-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 1st percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jacob Young's 84.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Luis Garcia Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jose Berrios to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.353) implies that George Springer has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .298 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+12.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+3.40 Units / 34% ROI)

• Date: April 1, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

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