Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/27/2024

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals gear up for their second game in the series on July 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in interesting positions within the National League. The Cardinals hold a 53-50 record, indicating an average season thus far, while the Nationals are lagging behind with a 48-56 record, reflecting a below-average campaign.

St. Louis will have Kyle Gibson on the mound. Gibson, a right-hander, has compiled a 7-3 record with a 3.99 ERA over 19 starts. While his ERA looks solid, his 4.80 xERA suggests he's been somewhat fortunate this season and may regress. Gibson is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch 5.9 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs today. Despite his below-average ranking as the #137 starting pitcher, he's been effective enough to keep the Cardinals in games.

The Nationals counter with Jake Irvin, who has a 7-8 record and an impressive 3.44 ERA over 21 starts. Irvin's projections are less flattering, with a forecast of 5.4 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed. Both pitchers are right-handers, which should make for an intriguing matchup against two offenses that have struggled with consistency.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 19th in MLB, an average standing bolstered by a #14 rank in team batting average. However, they lack power, shown by their #22 home run ranking. Michael Siani has been a bright spot over the last week, hitting .400 with a .937 OPS, 5 runs, and 3 stolen bases in six games.

The Nationals have one of the worst offenses in the league, ranking 26th overall. They do boast a solid batting average at 18th, but their power is nearly non-existent, ranking 29th in home runs. Ildemaro Vargas has been a standout recently, hitting .400 with a .955 OPS in his last four games.

A significant factor in this game will be the bullpens. The Cardinals have the 7th best bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Nationals languish at 29th. This disparity could be pivotal in a close game, as betting markets suggest with a Cardinals moneyline of -135 and a Nationals moneyline of +115.

With both teams having their ups and downs, the Cardinals' stronger bullpen and home-field advantage at Busch Stadium could be the deciding factors in this closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

In his previous GS, Jake Irvin was on point and posted 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Luis Garcia is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 4th-weakest projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson has averaged 91.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.7-mph EV last year has fallen to 86.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 43 games (+3.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 94 games (+7.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+16.30 Units / 35% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.19 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.77

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