Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 7/26/2024

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals (53-49) will host the Washington Nationals (47-56) on July 26, 2024, at Busch Stadium in a National League matchup. The Cardinals are enjoying an above-average season, while the Nationals are struggling with a below-average record. St. Louis is currently favored with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% chance of victory, and the advanced-stat Power Rankings support this, indicating the Cardinals have the 4th-best bullpen in MLB.

Starting on the mound for the Cardinals will be Sonny Gray, a right-handed pitcher who ranks 18th among approximately 350 starting pitchers, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Gray has been solid this season with a 10-6 record, a 3.54 ERA, and an impressive xFIP of 2.68, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better moving forward. In his 18 starts this year, Gray projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, 5.1 hits, and 1.3 walks while striking out 5.1 batters on average.

Opposing Gray will be MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals. The lefty has a 6-8 record with a 4.20 ERA over 20 starts this season. Despite his ERA, Gore's FIP of 3.13 indicates he has also had some bad luck. Projections suggest Gore will pitch 5.1 innings, give up 2.8 earned runs, allow 5.2 hits, and walk 2.3 batters while striking out 5.1.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 19th overall, showing average performance in team batting average (14th) but struggling with power, ranking 22nd in home runs. The Nationals, on the other hand, are 26th overall in offense, with a poor ranking of 29th in home runs but excelling in stolen bases, ranking 3rd.

The Cardinals' bullpen strength and the projected edge in starting pitching favor them in this contest. Meanwhile, Washington's bullpen ranks 29th, posing a significant disadvantage. Notably, Nolan Gorman has been hot for St. Louis, featuring a .910 OPS and two home runs over the last week. For Washington, Juan Yepez has been their standout hitter recently, with a .304 batting average and a .957 OPS over the last seven games.

Overall, with the Cardinals' strong pitching and bullpen, coupled with their slight edge in offensive prowess, they appear well-positioned to take the first game of this series against the Nationals.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Compared to average, MacKenzie Gore has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 6.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Juan Yepez has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .341 rate is a fair amount higher than his .311 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

As a team, Washington Nationals hitters have done poorly when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating worst in the game.

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Sonny Gray must realize this, because he has utilized his non-fastballs a lot this year: 58.7% of the time, grading out in the 75th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 97 games (+7.15 Units / 7% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.6 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.76

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