Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 5/29/2025

On May 29, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Washington Nationals at T-Mobile Park for the third game in their interleague series. The Mariners, currently sitting at 30-24, are enjoying a solid season, while the Nationals struggle at 25-30. In the last matchup, Washington came out on top, winning 9-0 and beating up on the struggling George Kirby early on.

Seattle's Emerson Hancock is projected to take the mound, bringing a mixed bag of results this season. With a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 5.95, Hancock has struggled, ranking as the 231st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, he has shown some potential, as his 4.31 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, and the projections indicate he could improve.

On the other side, Washington's MacKenzie Gore has had a more favorable season, despite a 2-5 record. His ERA of 3.47 ranks him as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB, and he has been a bright spot for the Nationals. Projections show that he could allow only 2.3 earned runs while striking out 7.2 batters on average, which speaks to his ability to handle the Mariners' offense, ranked 8th best in MLB this season.

Both teams are evenly matched according to betting odds, with each set at a moneyline of -110. However, the Mariners' strong offensive metrics and the potential for Hancock to outperform his ERA make them a team to watch closely. With a Game Total of 7.5 runs, bettors may find value in the Mariners, especially given their recent offensive success and the projections that suggest potential improvement from Hancock.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore is an extreme flyball pitcher (33% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Emerson Hancock.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The worst projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Emerson Hancock has gone to his sinker 7.9% more often this year (37.7%) than he did last season (29.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

J.P. Crawford is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The 10.7% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners ranks them as the #4 offense in the majors this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.80 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.75 Units / 62% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.60 Units / 112% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.52, Seattle Mariners 3.89

• Date: May 29, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners

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