Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 5/28/2025

The Seattle Mariners will host the Washington Nationals on May 28, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series. The Mariners enter this matchup with a solid 30-23 record, reflecting a strong season, while the Nationals are struggling at 24-30. In their last game, the Mariners took a decisive win over the Nationals, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Seattle's George Kirby is projected to take the mound, and despite a rough start to the season with a 0-1 record and a concerning 12.27 ERA, his 4.53 xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky and has the potential for a turnaround. Kirby's ability to limit walks, with a 5.3 BB%, may play a crucial role against a Nationals offense that ranks 5th in the fewest walks drawn. Kirby's projections also indicate he should pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.0 earned runs, which could keep the Mariners in a competitive position.

On the other side, Trevor Williams is set to start for the Nationals. With a 2-5 record and a 6.39 ERA, Williams has also been underwhelming this season. His 4.14 xFIP indicates some bad luck, but he still presents challenges, particularly given his control, as he has a BB% of 6.7. He projects to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, which could mean trouble against the Mariners’ offense ranking 10th overall in MLB.

With the Mariners favored at -200 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.93 runs, they appear poised to capitalize on their home field advantage and capitalize on their recent form. Meanwhile, the Nationals, with an implied team total of just 3.57 runs, will need a standout performance to challenge Seattle’s momentum.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

With a 1.97 gap between Trevor Williams's 6.39 ERA and his 4.42 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year and should positively regress the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

James Wood has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.7% rate last year to 18% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 7.7% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals makes them the #22 group of hitters in the majors this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Dylan Moore's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.4-mph figure last season has dropped off to 85-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.69 Units / 16% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+14.90 Units / 35% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.57, Seattle Mariners 4.78

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • George Kirby - Mariners

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.