Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 5/27/2025

On May 27, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Washington Nationals at T-Mobile Park in what marks the first game of an interleague series. Both teams enter with contrasting seasons; the Mariners sit at 29-23, showcasing a solid performance, while the Nationals trail at 24-29, struggling to find their rhythm.

Seattle is projected to send Logan Evans to the mound, a right-handed pitcher with a 2-1 record and an impressive ERA of 3.33 this season. Despite being ranked as the 246th best starting pitcher in MLB, the projections suggest that Evans has benefited from a bit of luck, and his performance could regress. He is expected to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing around 2.2 earned runs. However, he faces a Nationals offense that, while average overall, features a high-walk tendency that could exploit Evans's control issues.

On the other hand, Washington will counter with Mitchell Parker, a left-handed pitcher who has a 4-3 record and an ERA of 4.39. Parker's performance this season has been underwhelming, and he too has been fortunate with his metrics, as indicated by his 5.14 xFIP. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings with 2.6 earned runs allowed, but his high-flyball tendency (37% flyball rate) could be problematic against a Mariners lineup that ranks 6th in home runs with 70 this season.

With the Mariners being listed as favorites at -155 and an implied team total of 4.39 runs, they appear to have the edge in this matchup, especially given their power-hitting abilities and the Nationals' struggles on the mound. As the game approaches, bettors will be keenly watching how this opening series unfolds, particularly with the Mariners looking to capitalize on their home field advantage.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Out of all starting pitchers, Mitchell Parker's fastball spin rate of 2167 rpm is in the 11th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Josh Bell generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Evans.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 7.7% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals makes them the #22 club in the game this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Evans is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in T-Mobile Park — the #10 HR venue among all major league parks — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 42 games (+7.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.89 Units / 17% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.96, Seattle Mariners 4.42

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Logan Evans - Mariners

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.