Washington Nationals VS San Francisco Giants Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Josiah Gray - Nationals
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -145, Giants -1.5 125
• Money Line: Nationals 150, Giants -170
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 100

Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 39%
• San Francisco Giants - 61%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 32.2%
• San Francisco Giants - 67.8%

Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

On April 9, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will face off against the Washington Nationals at Oracle Park. The Giants, who currently hold a 4-6 record, are having a tough season, while the Nationals aren't faring much better with a 3-6 record. As the home team, the Giants will look to turn their season around and secure a victory against the Nationals.

The Giants are projected to start left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison, who has a record of 1-1 this season with an ERA of 4.91. While his numbers suggest he's been below average, he has been lucky so far, as his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is higher than his ERA, indicating potential regression in future performances. On the other side, the Nationals will send right-handed pitcher Josiah Gray to the mound. Gray has struggled this season with an ERA of 14.04, but his xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

In terms of offensive production, the Giants rank 19th in MLB, while the Nationals rank 20th. The Giants have struggled with their team batting average, ranking 21st, but have shown average power with a 19th rank in team home runs. The Nationals, on the other hand, have excelled in team batting average, ranking 6th, but have lacked power, ranking 29th in team home runs.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Giants have the top-ranked bullpen in MLB, while the Nationals have the worst-ranked bullpen. This could give the Giants an advantage late in the game if they can hand over a lead to their reliable relievers.

In terms of betting odds, the Giants are the favorites with a moneyline of -170, implying a 61% win probability. The Nationals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +150, giving them a 39% win probability. The implied team total for the Giants is 4.77 runs, while the Nationals have a lower implied team total of 3.73 runs.

Overall, the Giants have the edge in this matchup based on their stronger bullpen and higher win probability. However, both teams have struggled this season, so anything can happen on the field. It will be interesting to see if Kyle Harrison can capitalize on his strengths against a low-strikeout Nationals offense, while the Nationals will look to take advantage of Josiah Gray's potential for improvement. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, we can expect a competitive matchup between these two National League teams.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Joey Gallo has been cold of late, compiling a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Riley Adams, the Nationals's expected catcher in today's game, grades out as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Kyle Harrison is projected to average 2.01 earned runs in today's matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Mike Yastrzemski may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 79 of their last 128 games (+24.92 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 150 games (+20.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+7.25 Units / 38% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals 3.56 vs San Francisco Giants 4.98

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