Washington Nationals VS San Francisco Giants Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • Blake Snell - Giants
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -110, Giants -1.5 -110
• Money Line: Nationals 200, Giants -235
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 32%
• San Francisco Giants - 68%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 30.43%
• San Francisco Giants - 69.57%

Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup scheduled for April 8, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will take on the Washington Nationals at Oracle Park. The Giants, with a record of 4-6, are having a tough season, while the Nationals, with a record of 3-6, are also struggling.

The Giants will be the home team for this game, and they are projected to start left-handed pitcher Blake Snell. Snell, ranked as the #44 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been performing well, with an average projection of 5.3 innings pitched, 1.9 earned runs allowed, and 6.3 strikeouts. However, he is expected to allow 4.2 hits and 2.1 walks on average, which is less than ideal.

On the other side, the Nationals will have Trevor Williams as their starting pitcher. Williams, considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our Power Rankings, has started one game this season and has a win/loss record of 1-0. While his ERA is 3.38, suggesting a good performance, his peripheral indicators such as SIERA and FIP indicate that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. His average projection includes 5.2 innings pitched, 3.1 earned runs allowed, 3.8 strikeouts, 5.7 hits, and 2.0 walks.

The Giants offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB this season, with an average team ranking. Their team batting average ranks 21st, while their home run ranking is 19th. However, their stolen bases ranking is quite low, coming in at 29th. The Nationals offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 20th best in MLB, with a good team batting average ranking of 6th. However, their home runs and stolen bases rankings are both low, at 29th and 14th, respectively.

In terms of the bullpen, the Giants have the top-ranked bullpen in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Nationals have the 29th-ranked bullpen. This could give the Giants an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Giants are the big betting favorites with a moneyline of -235 and an implied win probability of 68%. The Nationals, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +200 and an implied win probability of 32%.

Overall, this game seems to favor the Giants with their strong bullpen and the projected performance of their starting pitcher, Blake Snell. However, baseball is a game of surprises, and anything can happen on any given day. It will be an interesting matchup to watch between these two struggling teams.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams has averaged 91.9 adjusted pitches per game per started since the start of last season, grading out in the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Washington Nationals projected lineup ranks as the 2nd-worst of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Michael Conforto is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen grades out as the best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 73 of their last 116 games (+25.97 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 150 games (+20.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 36% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals 3.47 vs San Francisco Giants 5.09

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