Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks 6/24/2024

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Matt Waldron - Padres

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals gear up for the first game of their series on June 24, 2024, at Petco Park, we take a closer look at how these evenly matched teams stack up. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Padres sitting at 41-41 and the Nationals at 38-39. This National League matchup pits two struggling pitchers against each other: Matt Waldron for the Padres and Patrick Corbin for the Nationals.

Waldron, a right-hander, has had a mixed season. While his 3.46 ERA suggests strong performance, his 4.07 xFIP indicates he’s been a bit fortunate and could regress. Despite a respectable 5-6 record, Waldron's projected to allow 2.7 earned runs, strike out 4.3 batters, and allow 5.7 hits over 5.8 innings, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. His high-flyball tendency could work to his advantage against a Nationals lineup that ranks 28th in home runs this season.

Corbin’s season has been rougher. With a 1-7 record and a 5.60 ERA, he’s considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB this year. However, his 4.56 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and might perform better than his surface stats indicate. Corbin is projected to allow 3.4 earned runs, strike out 3 batters, and give up 6.4 hits over 5.2 innings.

The Padres hold a distinct offensive edge, ranking 8th in overall offense and 1st in team batting average. Their power is evident, boasting the 8th most home runs in the league. Recent standout Jackson Merrill, with a .360 batting average and 1.167 OPS over the last week, is a key player to watch.

On the flip side, the Nationals' offense ranks 24th overall. While they excel in stolen bases, their power is severely lacking. CJ Abrams has been a bright spot recently, hitting .444 with a 1.251 OPS over the past week.

The Padres also have a significant bullpen advantage, ranking 10th compared to the Nationals' 29th. Given these factors, San Diego's implied team total of 4.99 runs seems reasonable, while Washington’s 3.51 runs reflect their offensive struggles.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Joey Meneses has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Matt Waldron projects for 17.7 outs today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the best hitter in the game as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Kyle Higashioka, the Padres's expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 66 games (+13.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+12.70 Units / 141% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.05 vs San Diego Padres 5.63

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.