Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Odds & Picks – 6/26/2024

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • DJ Herz - Nationals
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals are set to clash at Petco Park on June 26, 2024. Both clubs are in the middle of average seasons, with the Padres holding a record of 42-41 and the Nationals at 38-40. This game marks the third in their current series, with the Padres looking to maintain their slight edge in the standings.

On the mound for San Diego is Dylan Cease, currently ranked the 27th best starting pitcher in baseball by advanced metrics. Cease has been solid this year with a 3.95 ERA over 16 starts and a Win/Loss record of 6-6. His 3.39 xFIP, however, indicates some unluckiness and suggests he may improve as the season progresses. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, predicts Cease will pitch around six innings, allowing an estimated 2.3 earned runs while striking out 6.4 batters. The high-flyball pitcher faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 29th in home runs, potentially giving him an edge in limiting long balls.

Washington's DJ Herz will counter Cease. Herz has a 1-1 Win/Loss record and a 3.77 ERA over just four starts this season. Although his 2.95 xFIP implies he has been unfortunate, Herz’s projections are less favorable for this matchup. He is expected to pitch only 4.3 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, with a meager 3.6 strikeouts. This could spell trouble against a Padres offense that ranks 2nd in team batting average and 8th overall among MLB offenses.

The Padres' bullpen, ranked 10th, also carries a distinct advantage over the Nationals, whose relievers rank 28th. This disparity in bullpen strength could be decisive late in the game.

Offensively, San Diego has the better lineup on paper. Jackson Merrill has been red-hot over the last week, boasting a .435 batting average and 1.350 OPS with three home runs and eight RBIs. For Washington, CJ Abrams has been a standout, hitting .474 with seven runs and three stolen bases over the same period.

With the Padres holding an implied win probability of 63% and an edge in almost every statistical category, they are the favorites going into this game. Coupled with Herz’s struggles and the Nationals' power deficiency, San Diego seems well-positioned to take this matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

DJ Herz is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

When estimating his strikeout talent, Dylan Cease projects as the 11th-best SP in MLB right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Extreme flyball batters like Bryce Johnson tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like DJ Herz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+6.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 70 games (+12.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.10 Units / 222% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.66 vs San Diego Padres 4.95

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