Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 6/25/2025

The San Diego Padres will host the Washington Nationals at Petco Park on June 25, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup. The Padres, sitting at 43-36 this season, have been performing above average, while the Nationals languish at 33-47, mired in a tough stretch. In their last game against each other, the Padres managed to secure a victory, consolidating their strong performance in this series.

On the mound for the Padres will be Nick Pivetta, ranked as the 60th best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections indicate he will pitch approximately 5.7 innings, allowing around 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 6.0 batters. However, he does have some concerns, as he will likely allow 5.0 hits and 1.3 walks—numbers that could give the Nationals' hitters some opportunities.

MacKenzie Gore will take the ball for Washington, holding the 40th spot in the Power Rankings. Gore’s stats show he will likely pitch 5.4 innings, allow 2.8 earned runs, and strike out 5.2 batters, which aligns with his average performance this season. However, like Pivetta, he too faces challenges, projected to give up 5.5 hits and 1.9 walks.

The Game Total is currently set at 8.0 runs, and with the Padres favored at a moneyline of -145, they seem poised to continue their recent success against a struggling Nationals squad.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (49.8% compared to 44.7% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Hitters such as Josh Bell with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Luis Garcia Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta was firing on all cylinders in his last start and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The San Diego Padres (18.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games (+10.34 Units / 13% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.50 Units / 72% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.95, San Diego Padres 4.67

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres

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