Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 6/23/2025

On June 23, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Washington Nationals at Petco Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Padres currently sit at 42-35, enjoying an above-average season, while the Nationals struggle at 32-46, reflecting a terrible campaign. The Padres are a betting favorite with a moneyline of -155, implying a 59% chance of victory, while the Nationals, at +135, are viewed as underdogs with a 41% win probability.

Padres' projected starter Stephen Kolek enters the matchup with a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.59, indicating a solid performance, though his 4.37 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate this season. Kolek's strikeout rate is low at 16.7%, which could be a concern against a low-strikeout Nationals offense.

Mitchell Parker, the Nationals' projected starter, has had a rough year with a 4-8 record and an ERA of 4.59. Like Kolek, Parker also struggles with strikeouts, holding a 16.9% rate. With both pitchers having low strikeout tendencies, the Padres might find opportunities to capitalize on their offensive advantages despite ranking only 18th in the league.

The projections indicate a favorable matchup for the Padres, given their strong bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB, compared to the Nationals' average bullpen, ranked 19th. With the Padres' recent success and the Nationals' ongoing struggles, San Diego looks poised to take the win in this matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue in the majors in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Luis Garcia Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The Washington Nationals have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Stephen Kolek in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games at home (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+8.24 Units / 12% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+7.50 Units / 19% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.2, San Diego Padres 4.94

• Date: June 23, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres

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