Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Pick – 6/24/2025

The San Diego Padres will host the Washington Nationals at Petco Park on June 24, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Padres currently sit with a record of 42-36, showcasing an above-average season, while the Nationals are struggling at 33-46, marking a disappointing campaign. In their previous matchup, the Nationals got the better of the Padres, but both teams will be looking to establish momentum in this contest.

Ryan Bergert is projected to take the mound for the Padres. Despite being ranked as the 221st best starting pitcher in MLB, his current ERA of 1.88 suggests he has been effective, though his xFIP of 4.63 indicates he may have benefited from some good fortune. Bergert's ability to limit earned runs will be crucial, especially considering he projects to allow an average of 2.5 earned runs today. However, he struggles with walks, which could be problematic against a Nationals offense that ranks as the 6th least patient in the league.

On the other side, Trevor Williams will start for the Nationals. He has a less impressive record of 3-8 and an ERA of 5.54, indicating significant struggles this season. Williams's projections suggest he may allow around 2.7 earned runs today, which could be manageable, but his low strikeout rate of 17.6% might not bode well against a Padres lineup that has shown an ability to make contact.

While the Padres' offense ranks just 21st in MLB, their bullpen is rated 5th, giving them an edge in late-game situations. With the Padres favored at a moneyline of -165, the projections suggest a strong likelihood of them securing another win against the Nationals, who are grappling with their own issues on the mound and at the plate.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's 87.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.7-mph fall off from last year's 88.8-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

This season, James Wood has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100 mph compared to last year's 96.6 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Luis Garcia Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Ryan Bergert is an extreme flyball pitcher (36% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Bats such as Tyler Wade with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Trevor Williams who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the San Diego Padres with a 19.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 41% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.3, San Diego Padres 4.71

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • Ryan Bergert - Padres

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