Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Odds – 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Jared Jones - Pirates

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to take on the Washington Nationals on September 8, 2024, the stakes are low, but the on-field action remains compelling. Both teams sit firmly below .500, with the Pirates holding a record of 66-76 and the Nationals at 64-78. In their last matchup, the Nationals triumphed over the Pirates with an 8-6 victory on September 7, marking a crucial win in this four-game series.

The matchup features intriguing pitching profiles. Jared Jones, projected to start for the Pirates, ranks as the 78th best starter in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings—a notable position that reflects his above-average capabilities. However, he faces a difficult challenge in left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin, who has struggled this season and is viewed as one of the weaker options in MLB. Corbin's ERA stands at 5.41, and while he has a favorable xFIP of 4.18 that suggests improvement may be on the horizon, he has consistently allowed significant earned runs.

The projections favor the Pirates, indicating they could score as many as 5.18 runs on average against Corbin. This comes against a Nationals bullpen ranked 27th overall in MLB, demonstrating their vulnerabilities. On the offensive side, the Pirates have struggled this season, ranking 28th in the league, but Bryan Reynolds remains a standout performer, having tallied 79 RBIs and a .278 batting average.

As the Pirates look to bounce back from their recent defeat, they benefit from the projections favoring their chances today. With a high implied team total of 4.68 runs, they might just capitalize on the struggling Nationals and their less-than-ideal pitching situation.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Patrick Corbin's 90.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 12th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.257) provides evidence that Andres Chaparro has been very fortunate this year with his .322 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jared Jones is projected to throw 82 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of the day.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Bryan De La Cruz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+11.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 80 of their last 142 games (+7.88 Units / 4% ROI)
• Jared Jones has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.22 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.36

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