Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game 2 Picks – 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Nationals vs Pirates Game 2 Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game 2 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game 2 Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Washington Nationals on September 7, 2024, both teams are looking to improve on subpar seasons. The Pirates sit at 66-74, while the Nationals are even further behind at 62-78. This matchup is critical as it marks the second in their Saturday doubleheader, with both clubs desperate for any semblance of momentum.

On the mound for the Pirates, Mitch Keller is projected to start. The right-hander has been noteworthy this season, with an 11-9 record and a solid ERA of 3.88. Keller's ability to pitch an average of 6.0 innings with 2.8 earned runs allowed makes him a reliable option, although his projected 5.9 hits allowed per outing raises some concerns. Meanwhile, Mitchell Parker will take the hill for the Nationals. The lefty has struggled, holding a below-average ERA of 4.27 and averaging just 4.8 innings per start. The Pirates should look to capitalize on Parker's weaknesses, particularly his tendency to allow 1.7 walks and 5.1 hits, both of which could lead to scoring opportunities.

In the second game of this doubleheader, bullpen usage will be something to monitor going in. The team that has used less of its bullpen in Game 1 on the day should have the advantage coming down the stretch in this contest, as both teams will look to be as fresh as possible heading into this contest.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Mitchell Parker is projected to throw 84 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 12th-least of all pitchers today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.9-mph figure last year has dropped off to 87.3-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Mitch Keller encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As it relates to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has had some very poor luck this year. His 20.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 110 games (+11.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 127 games (+6.95 Units / 4% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game 2 Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.52 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.79

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.