Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 4/16/2025

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Washington Nationals on April 16, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a pivotal matchup for both struggling teams. The Pirates enter the game with a record of 6-12 this season, while the Nationals are slightly better at 7-10, but neither team is finding much success early on. Yesterday, the Pirates suffered a disappointing loss, further emphasizing their dismal season.

On the mound, the Pirates are set to start left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who currently holds an 0-2 record and a troubling ERA of 7.20. While his xFIP of 4.38 indicates he may have been unlucky, he still ranks as the 252nd best starting pitcher in MLB—one of the worst among his peers. Falter projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs. However, his tendency to give up 5.6 hits and 1.5 walks per game could be problematic against a Nationals lineup that is performing reasonably well.

Mitchell Parker, also a lefty, counters for the Nationals. Parker boasts a 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.96, indicating he is performing well above average. The projections suggest he’ll likely allow around 2.4 earned runs, which may give the Nationals an edge in this matchup. As a high-groundball pitcher facing a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in MLB, Parker could exploit their lack of power, making it difficult for them to generate runs.

Betting markets have evened the moneyline for both teams at -110, suggesting a competitive game under the average game total of 8.5 runs. With the Pirates ranked dead last in team batting average and home runs, they face an uphill battle against a National offense that, while average, could take advantage of a struggling pitcher like Falter. This matchup highlights how a strong performance from Parker could tilt the odds in favor of the Nationals despite their overall struggles this season.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Josh Bell's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88.7-mph mark last season has decreased to 84.4-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter has utilized his four-seamer 6% less often this season (42.5%) than he did last year (48.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Extreme groundball bats like Tommy Pham generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Mitchell Parker.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 42% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.76, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.37

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.