Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 4/14/2025

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Washington Nationals on April 14, 2025, both teams are fighting through a tough season. The Pirates stand at 5-11, while the Nationals are slightly ahead at 6-9. Both teams have struggled offensively, with the Pirates ranking as the 30th best offense in MLB and the Nationals sitting at 12th. Despite the Pirates' lowly offensive output, their pitching staff is carried by Paul Skenes, who has been nothing short of elite this season.

Skenes, ranked as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB, is projected to start for the Pirates. He has a solid ERA of 3.44 and a remarkable 2.24 xFIP, indicating that he has been unlucky and is poised for improvement. His projections suggest he will pitch approximately 6.1 innings, allowing just 1.8 earned runs, and recording around 6.7 strikeouts. This bodes well against a Nationals lineup that has demonstrated inconsistency.

On the other hand, Nationals’ Brad Lord, who holds an average ERA of 1.80, could be due for a regression, given his higher 5.23 xFIP. His low strikeout rate and tendency to walk hitters may play into the Pirates’ hands, as they rank 6th in MLB for walks drawn. With Lord projected to pitch only 4.4 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs, the Nationals might struggle to keep pace.

The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, and with the Pirates favored at -210, they seem positioned to capitalize on their advantages on the mound. Despite an overall lackluster record this season, the Pirates could find success if their elite pitcher, Skenes, can deliver another strong performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Bradley Lord performed well in his last start and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Josh Bell's average exit velocity has declined this year; his 88.7-mph mark last year has decreased to 82.8-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Because groundball pitchers have a notable edge over groundball batters, Paul Skenes and his 49.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today's outing being matched up with 6 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Brad Lord.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• James Wood has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+16.60 Units / 277% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.28, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.58

• Date: April 14, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brad Lord - Nationals
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

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