Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/16/2024

• Date: September 16, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Washington Nationals on September 16, 2024, the stakes are higher for the Mets, who sit at 81-68 this season and are enjoying an above-average campaign. In contrast, the Nationals are struggling with a 68-81 record, marking a below-average season. The Mets have already been eliminated from winning their division, but they still hold aspirations for a Wild Card spot.

In their last outing, the Mets lost a tight game against the Philadelphia Phillies. They rank as the 10th best offense in MLB this season, particularly excelling in home runs where they are 5th overall. With Sean Manaea projected to take the mound, the Mets are banking on his pitching to exploit the Nationals' struggles at the plate. Manaea's performance will be crucial, especially against a Washington lineup that ranks 22nd in overall offense and 29th in home runs.

On the other side, Jake Irvin is set to start for the Nationals. Despite a respectable ERA of 4.19, Irvin has been deemed a bad pitcher by advanced metrics, and his projections indicate he may struggle against the Mets' potent offense. The projections suggest that Irvin will allow an average of 4.9 hits and 1.7 walks today, which could spell trouble against a lineup that is hitting well.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs and the Mets favored with a moneyline of -185, this matchup presents an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the Mets' strong form and the Nationals' ongoing struggles. The Mets are projected to score 4.28 runs, while the Nationals’ low implied team total of 3.22 runs reflects their uphill battle in this series opener.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin performed well in his last outing and allowed 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.9-mph figure last season has dropped off to 87.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

James Wood has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying 5.1 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos's true offensive skill to be a .316, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .050 difference between that mark and his actual .366 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the New York Mets offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 82 games (+13.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 44 away games (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jacob Young has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+7.35 Units / 21% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.42 vs New York Mets 4.42

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