Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Washington Nationals on September 17, 2024, both teams are in contrasting positions in the standings. The Mets hold a respectable record of 82-68, showcasing an above-average season, while the Nationals sit at 68-82, struggling to find consistency. This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the second game of their series, following a recent performance where the Mets won 2-1 in 10 innings.

Projected to start for the Mets is Tylor Megill, a right-handed pitcher whose season has been marked by mixed results. Megill has started 12 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 3-5 and an ERA of 4.48, indicating he’s been average overall. However, his 3.93 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve moving forward. On the other side, the Nationals will send out Mitchell Parker, a left-handed pitcher with a below-average profile, holding a 7-9 record and an ERA of 4.24.

The Mets’ offense has been solid this season, ranking 11th in MLB and excelling in power with a 5th place ranking in home runs. In contrast, the Nationals rank 22nd overall, struggling significantly with power as they sit 29th in home runs. This stark difference could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Mets are favored to win with a projected team total of 4.41 runs compared to the Nationals' low projection of 3.69 runs. Given the current dynamics, the Mets appear poised to capitalize on their strengths against a Nationals team that has struggled to find their footing.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Given the 0.4 deviation between Mitchell Parker's 4.24 ERA and his 3.83 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year and figures to positively regress in the future.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Despite posting a .333 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jose Tena has been very fortunate given the .043 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .290.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

James Wood has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill's 95-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 86th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Starling Marte is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Mets have been the 4th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 100 games (+14.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+7.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+7.35 Units / 147% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.78 vs New York Mets 4.31

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